Charlton 0-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Charlton welcome Stevenage to The Valley in League One (matchday 42). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Charlton have gone 3W 6D 1L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Charlton at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stevenage stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stevenage's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Charlton have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Charlton's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Charlton, 0 for Stevenage and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Charlton 1–1 Stevenage — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (last 86 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Stevenage trading profile (last 86 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 67% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 52% | Stevenage 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charlton surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Stevenage have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.54 xG and Stevenage 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.077 / defence 1.144 | Stevenage attack 0.982 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.187. Data: built from Charlton's last 86 games and Stevenage's last 40.
Result probabilities: Charlton 42% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 33%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.37 | Draw 4.04 | Stevenage 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charlton 80% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 42 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 42% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Charlton 1.54 / Stevenage 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.077 / def 1.144 | Stevenage attack 0.982 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Charlton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Stevenage xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Stevenage kick off?
Charlton vs Stevenage kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Stevenage?
Charlton 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Charlton vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Stevenage part of?
Charlton vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 42% chance of winning, Stevenage a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Charlton and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charlton vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.08) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 86 games and Stevenage's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
42%
2.37
25%
4.04
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.87
1.33
Stevenage xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Charlton and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Charlton and 1.33 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton come into this having played 86 games, going 26W 30D 30L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.72 PPG from 86 outings (41W 25D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Stevenage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Charlton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charlton's home form reads 16W 12D 14L across their last 42 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 42 away games (15W 15D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.30 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stevenage in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
Charlton (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Charlton vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 26W 30D 30L in their last 86 games (1.26 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 41W 25D 20L in their last 86 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Stevenage away?
Charlton's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.43 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Charlton or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Stevenage in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Stevenage?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 1, Stevenage have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Charlton 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 47% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 71%, Stevenage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Charlton) and 43% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 31%; Stevenage in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Stevenage matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Charlton's games and 50% of Stevenage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charlton and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Charlton's recent games and 43% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Charlton's recent matches and 76% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charlton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton and Stevenage finished level at 0-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.54 xG and Stevenage 1.33 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Stevenage landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.08 / defence 1.14 against Stevenage attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 86/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 42% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 33%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 52%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Stevenage's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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