Charlton 1-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shrewsbury travel to The Valley to take on Charlton in League One (matchday 45). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Charlton — last 10 games: 4W 6D 0L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Charlton have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Shrewsbury have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Shrewsbury have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Charlton are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Charlton's games and 60% of Shrewsbury's (from Charlton's last 10 home games and Shrewsbury's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Charlton, 1 for Shrewsbury and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Charlton 0–0 Shrewsbury — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 68% versus Shrewsbury 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 52% | Shrewsbury 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.46 xG and Shrewsbury 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.031 / defence 1.056 | Shrewsbury attack 0.864 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.191. Data: built from Charlton's last 90 games and Shrewsbury's last 90.
Result probabilities: Charlton 46% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 28%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.19 | Draw 3.82 | Shrewsbury 3.55. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charlton 70% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, matchday 45 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 46% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Charlton 1.46 / Shrewsbury 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.031 / def 1.056 | Shrewsbury attack 0.864 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Charlton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Shrewsbury xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Shrewsbury FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Charlton vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Charlton 1 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is Charlton vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Shrewsbury part of?
Charlton vs Shrewsbury is a League One fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 46% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Charlton and Shrewsbury will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charlton vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.03x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 90 games and Shrewsbury's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.82
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.54
1.09
Shrewsbury xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Shrewsbury Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Charlton and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Charlton and 1.09 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 90 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 27W 33D 30L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Shrewsbury's form line: 30W 16D 44L from 90 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.27 PPG, Shrewsbury on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 45 home games (17W 14D 14L).
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 11W 10D 24L from their last 45 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.94 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Charlton (Home) vs Shrewsbury (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Charlton vs Shrewsbury Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 27W 33D 30L in their last 90 games (1.27 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 30W 16D 44L in their last 90 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Shrewsbury away?
Charlton's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.44 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Apr 2023, when Charlton won Charlton 6-0 Shrewsbury.
Charlton's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Shrewsbury H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Shrewsbury?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 5, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Shrewsbury last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Charlton 1-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Shrewsbury?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 35% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 71%, Shrewsbury 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Charlton) and 40% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Shrewsbury Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Shrewsbury matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Charlton's recent matches and 36% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charlton and Shrewsbury matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Charlton's recent games and 40% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Shrewsbury matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Charlton's recent matches and 64% of Shrewsbury's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 45, as Charlton and Shrewsbury drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.46 xG and Shrewsbury 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Shrewsbury attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 46% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 28%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 52%, Shrewsbury 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.27 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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