Charlton 2-3 Morecambe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Morecambe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charlton and Morecambe meet at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 43. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Charlton (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 5W 1D 4L at The Valley — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Morecambe have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Morecambe's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Charlton. A 0.60 PPG lead over Morecambe (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Charlton, 0 for Morecambe and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Morecambe — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 50% versus Morecambe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 45% | Morecambe 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.72 xG and Morecambe 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.882 / defence 1.138 | Morecambe attack 0.673 / defence 1.776. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.149. Morecambe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.776 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Charlton games / 42 Morecambe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 56% | Draw 26% | Morecambe 18%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Morecambe 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 20% | Morecambe 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Morecambe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 56% | Draw 26% | Morecambe 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Charlton 1.72 / Morecambe 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.882 / def 1.138 | Morecambe attack 0.673 / def 1.776 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Charlton (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Morecambe xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Morecambe kick off?
Charlton vs Morecambe kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Morecambe?
Charlton 2 - 3 Morecambe.
Where is Charlton vs Morecambe being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Morecambe part of?
Charlton vs Morecambe is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Morecambe?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 56% chance of winning, Morecambe a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Morecambe?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Charlton and Morecambe will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Morecambe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Morecambe?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 1 | Morecambe 0W.
What form are Charlton and Morecambe in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Morecambe (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.88x the league average against Morecambe's defence at 1.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Morecambe's attack (0.67x) against Charlton's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.79
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.60
0.88
Morecambe xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
3%
31.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Morecambe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Morecambe expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Charlton and 0.88 for Morecambe, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Morecambe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 8D 19L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Morecambe's form line: 9W 11D 22L from 42 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Charlton against 0.90 for Morecambe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
On the road, Morecambe have gone 2W 4D 15L from 21 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Morecambe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Morecambe are on 1.26 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Morecambe in 62%.
Last 42 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Morecambe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Morecambe in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Morecambe have gone 9W 11D 22L in their last 42 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Morecambe away?
Charlton's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.48 PPG; Morecambe away: 0.48 PPG.
Have Charlton or Morecambe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Morecambe in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 1-4 on 14 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Morecambe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Charlton
1
Draws
2
Morecambe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Morecambe?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Morecambe have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Morecambe last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Charlton 2-3 Morecambe.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Morecambe?
Morecambe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 33%, Morecambe 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Charlton) and 67% (Morecambe).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Charlton have failed to score in 29% of games; Morecambe in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Morecambe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Morecambe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Charlton's recent matches and 62% of Morecambe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Morecambe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Charlton's recent games and 67% of Morecambe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Morecambe tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Morecambe in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Morecambe defy the odds to beat Charlton 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Morecambe beat Charlton 2-3 at The Valley, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.72 xG and Morecambe 0.88 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Morecambe outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Morecambe attack 0.67 / defence 1.78, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 56% | Draw 26% | Morecambe 18%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Morecambe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 45%, Morecambe 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Morecambe's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.26 PPG, Morecambe 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Morecambe win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Morecambe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.