Charlton 0-0 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 20 as Charlton welcome Mansfield Town to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at The Valley this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Mansfield Town have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 1.00 PPG versus Mansfield Town's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charlton register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Mansfield Town in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Charlton in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 67% and Mansfield Town 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Mansfield Town 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.37 xG and Mansfield Town 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.962 / defence 1.095 | Mansfield Town attack 0.914 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.097. Data: 64 Charlton games / 17 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 43% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 30%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Mansfield Town 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 70% | Mansfield Town 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 43% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Charlton 1.37 / Mansfield Town 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.962 / def 1.095 | Mansfield Town attack 0.914 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Charlton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Mansfield Town xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Charlton vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Mansfield Town?
Charlton 0 - 0 Mansfield Town.
Where is Charlton vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Mansfield Town part of?
Charlton vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 43% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charlton and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Mansfield Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Mansfield Town in?
Charlton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.96) and Mansfield Town's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.72
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.47
1.10
Mansfield Town xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Charlton and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Charlton and 1.10 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton's recent record stands at 16W 25D 22L from 63 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 15L across 63 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mansfield Town by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 10W 11D 9L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 15W 6D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.78 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Mansfield Town in 63%.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 16W 25D 22L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 31W 17D 15L in their last 63 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.37 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
1
Draws
0
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Mansfield Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when Mansfield Town 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Mansfield Town?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Charlton at 73%, Mansfield Town at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Charlton) and 57% (Mansfield Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Charlton's games and 67% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Charlton's matches and 57% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Charlton and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charlton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 20, as Charlton and Mansfield Town drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.37 xG and Mansfield Town 1.10 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Mansfield Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Mansfield Town attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 64/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 43% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 30%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Mansfield Town 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.