Charlton 2-0 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charlton and Ipswich meet at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 7 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton at The Valley this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Valley this season.
Ipswich have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich's away record: 3W 1D 5L from 9 road trips in League One this season (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.11 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Charlton against 1.70 for Ipswich. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 60% and Ipswich 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Charlton 55% | Ipswich 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.52 xG and Ipswich 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.099 / defence 1.199 | Ipswich attack 1.043 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.324. Data: 20 Charlton games / 20 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 23% | Ipswich 41%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Ipswich 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Ipswich 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 23% | Ipswich 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Charlton 1.52 / Ipswich 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.099 / def 1.199 | Ipswich attack 1.043 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Ipswich xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Ipswich kick off?
Charlton vs Ipswich kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 7 December 2021 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Ipswich?
Charlton 2 - 0 Ipswich.
Where is Charlton vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Ipswich part of?
Charlton vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 35% chance of winning, Ipswich a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Charlton and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Ipswich?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Ipswich in?
Charlton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.10) and Ipswich's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.04x) against Charlton's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
35%
2.83
23%
4.26
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.17
1.66
Ipswich xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Charlton and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Charlton and 1.66 for Ipswich, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charlton's recent record stands at 6W 5D 9L from 20 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 7L across 20 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Charlton against 1.35 for Ipswich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 3W 2D 4L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ipswich's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.80 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ipswich in 70%.
Last 20 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 6W 5D 9L in their last 20 games (1.15 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Ipswich away?
Charlton's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.22 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Charlton or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ipswich in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ipswich won 6-0 on 15 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Ipswich?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Charlton 1-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 56%, Ipswich 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Charlton and 78% for Ipswich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Ipswich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Charlton's games and 67% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Charlton's matches and 78% of Ipswich's.
Do Charlton and Ipswich tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ipswich.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Ipswich 2-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.52 xG and Ipswich 1.66 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.10 / defence 1.20 against Ipswich attack 1.04 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 35% | Draw 23% | Ipswich 41%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 55%, Ipswich 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ipswich's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.15 PPG, Ipswich 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.