Charlton 1-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Cambridge United travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 5W 1D 4L at The Valley — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cambridge United have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Charlton) versus 1.30 (Cambridge United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Charlton, 0 for Cambridge United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Charlton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 48% versus Cambridge United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Cambridge United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 2.31 xG and Cambridge United 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.272 / defence 0.966 | Cambridge United attack 0.911 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.013. Charlton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Charlton games / 50 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 69% | Draw 18% | Cambridge United 13%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Cambridge United 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 30% | Cambridge United 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 69% | Draw 18% | Cambridge United 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 53% | xG Charlton 2.31 / Cambridge United 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.272 / def 0.966 | Cambridge United attack 0.911 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Charlton (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cambridge United xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Cambridge United kick off?
Charlton vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Charlton 1 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Charlton vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Cambridge United part of?
Charlton vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 69% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Charlton and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cambridge United?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 2W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Charlton and Cambridge United in?
Charlton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charlton's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
69%
1.45
18%
5.45
13%
7.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.21
0.89
Cambridge United xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.45
18%
Draw
7.93
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
10%
10.12
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
1%
80.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Charlton and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Charlton and 0.89 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 19W 9D 22L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambridge United's form line: 17W 13D 20L from 50 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cambridge United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.32 PPG, Cambridge United on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (12W 4D 9L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 7W 5D 13L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Cambridge United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 19W 9D 22L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 17W 13D 20L in their last 50 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Cambridge United away?
Charlton's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.60 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Charlton or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Charlton's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
3
Draws
0
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cambridge United?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 5, Cambridge United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Cambridge United?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 36%, Cambridge United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Charlton) and 56% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Charlton's recent matches and 56% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Charlton's recent games and 56% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Cambridge United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 5, as Charlton and Cambridge United drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 2.31 xG and Cambridge United 0.89 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.27 / defence 0.97 against Cambridge United attack 0.91 / defence 1.27, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 69% | Draw 18% | Cambridge United 13%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Cambridge United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.32 PPG, Cambridge United 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cambridge United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.