Charlton 1-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 64% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Burton Albion at The Valley in League One (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Charlton — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Charlton have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Burton Albion have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 1.40 PPG versus Burton Albion's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Charlton: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Burton Albion, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended Charlton 3–2 Burton Albion — a Charlton win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Charlton and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Burton Albion trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 65% versus Burton Albion 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 54% | Burton Albion 50%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Charlton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 2.11 xG and Burton Albion 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.265 / defence 1.185 | Burton Albion attack 0.676 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.155. Charlton carry an above-average attack rating of 1.265 — their 2.11 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Burton Albion's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Burton Albion's attack rating of 0.676 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Charlton's last 66 games and Burton Albion's last 67.
Result probabilities: Charlton 64% | Draw 21% | Burton Albion 15%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.57 | Draw 4.65 | Burton Albion 6.80. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Charlton 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charlton 80% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 23 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 64% | Draw 21% | Burton Albion 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Charlton 2.11 / Burton Albion 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.265 / def 1.185 | Burton Albion attack 0.676 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Charlton (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Burton Albion xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Burton Albion kick off?
Charlton vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Charlton 1 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Charlton vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Burton Albion part of?
Charlton vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 23) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 64% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Charlton and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charlton vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.26x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 66 games and Burton Albion's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.65
15%
6.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.04
0.93
Burton Albion xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.65
21%
Draw
6.80
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
12%
8.25
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
2%
56.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Charlton and 0.93 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton come into this having played 66 games, going 23W 21D 22L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.15 PPG from 66 outings (20W 16D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.36 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charlton's home form reads 14W 9D 10L across their last 33 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.91 points per game from their last 33 away games (8W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.12 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
Charlton (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Charlton vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 23W 21D 22L in their last 66 games (1.36 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 20W 16D 30L in their last 66 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Burton Albion away?
Charlton's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.55 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Charlton's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Burton Albion?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 5, Burton Albion have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Charlton 3-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Burton Albion?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 73%, Burton Albion 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Charlton) and 54% (Burton Albion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Burton Albion matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Charlton's games and 48% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charlton and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Charlton's matches and 54% of Burton Albion's.
Do Charlton and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Charlton's recent matches and 61% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 23, as Charlton and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 2.11 xG and Burton Albion 0.93 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.26 / defence 1.19 against Burton Albion attack 0.68 / defence 1.23, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 64% | Draw 21% | Burton Albion 15%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 54%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.36 PPG, Burton Albion 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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