Cardiff 1-0 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port Vale make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in League One, Regular Season - 41. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Cardiff (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cardiff at Cardiff City Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Port Vale have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Port Vale have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Cardiff, 1.20 for Port Vale — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cardiff lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (88 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Port Vale — key trading statistics (88 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 56% versus Port Vale 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 49% | Port Vale 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.93 xG and Port Vale 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.125 / defence 0.946 | Port Vale attack 0.812 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.170. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Cardiff games / 42 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 61% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 17%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Port Vale 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Cardiff (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cardiff 40% | Port Vale 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 61% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Cardiff 1.93 / Port Vale 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.125 / def 0.946 | Port Vale attack 0.812 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Port Vale xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Port Vale kick off?
Cardiff vs Port Vale kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Port Vale?
Cardiff 1 - 0 Port Vale.
Where is Cardiff vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Port Vale part of?
Cardiff vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 61% chance of winning, Port Vale a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cardiff and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Port Vale?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 1 | Port Vale 0W.
What form are Cardiff and Port Vale in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Port Vale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cardiff's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.81x) against Cardiff's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.63
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.83
0.90
Port Vale xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
2%
40.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.90 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cardiff's recent record stands at 34W 27D 27L from 88 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 31W 26D 31L across 88 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Cardiff against 1.35 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 22W 8D 13L from 43 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 15W 10D 18L across 43 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cardiff are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.11 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Port Vale in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 34W 27D 27L in their last 88 games (1.47 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 31W 26D 31L in their last 88 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Port Vale away?
Cardiff's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.72 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Port Vale in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cardiff
1
Draws
0
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Port Vale?
From 2 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 1, Port Vale have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Cardiff 1-0 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Port Vale?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 46%, Port Vale 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cardiff) and 44% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Port Vale in 30%; Cardiff have failed to score in 26% of games; Port Vale in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cardiff's recent matches and 42% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cardiff's recent games and 44% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Port Vale tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Port Vale 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Port Vale 1-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.93 xG and Port Vale 0.90 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Port Vale landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.12 / defence 0.95 against Port Vale attack 0.81 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 61% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 17%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 49%, Port Vale 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Port Vale's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.47 PPG, Port Vale 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.