Cambridge United 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambridge United vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambridge United and Stevenage meet at Cledara Abbey Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 4 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Cambridge United (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambridge United have posted 3W 3D 4L at Cledara Abbey Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stevenage have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cambridge United 1W, Stevenage 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Cambridge United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 40% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 40% | Stevenage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.07 xG and Stevenage 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.933 / defence 1.102 | Stevenage attack 0.730 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.186. Data: 79 Cambridge United games / 79 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 37% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 31%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Stevenage 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambridge United 60% | Stevenage 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 37% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Cambridge United 1.07 / Stevenage 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.933 / def 1.102 | Stevenage attack 0.730 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Stevenage xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Stevenage kick off?
Cambridge United vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 4 March 2025 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Stevenage?
Cambridge United 0 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Cambridge United vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Stevenage part of?
Cambridge United vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 37% chance of winning, Stevenage a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cambridge United and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Stevenage?
Record (3 meetings): Cambridge United 1W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 2W.
What form are Cambridge United and Stevenage in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambridge United's attack rating (0.93) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.73x) against Cambridge United's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
37%
2.68
31%
3.18
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.03
0.95
Stevenage xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cambridge United and 0.95 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambridge United's recent record stands at 19W 20D 40L from 79 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 31W 22D 26L across 79 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambridge United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cambridge United have managed 12W 11D 15L from 38 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 13W 11D 14L across 38 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambridge United are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.11 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 19W 20D 40L in their last 79 games (0.97 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 31W 22D 26L in their last 79 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Stevenage away?
Stevenage's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.24 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Cambridge United or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambridge United have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Stevenage in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambridge United have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambridge United
0
Draws
3
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 1, Stevenage have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambridge United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 45%, Stevenage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cambridge United) and 45% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 42%; Cambridge United have failed to score in 37% of games; Stevenage in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 40% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cambridge United's recent games and 45% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Stevenage tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Cambridge United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Cambridge United 0-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.07 xG and Stevenage 0.95 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Stevenage attack 0.73 / defence 0.89, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 37% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 31%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 40%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.