Cambridge United 1-2 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cambridge United face Stevenage.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambridge United and Stevenage meet at Abbey Stadium in League One (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 15 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Cambridge United (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Cambridge United have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stevenage have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 44% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cambridge United 42% | Stevenage 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.33 xG and Stevenage 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 1.075 / defence 0.880 | Stevenage attack 0.844 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.073. Data: built from Cambridge United's last 48 games and Stevenage's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 49% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 22%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.03 | Draw 3.54 | Stevenage 4.47. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cambridge United's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambridge United 50% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 30% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Cambridge United 48 games, Stevenage 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 3 | Venue: Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 49% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Cambridge United 1.33 / Stevenage 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 1.075 / def 0.880 | Stevenage attack 0.844 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Stevenage xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cambridge United vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Cambridge United vs Stevenage kick off?
Cambridge United vs Stevenage kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 15 August 2023 at Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Stevenage?
Cambridge United 1 - 2 Stevenage.
Where is Cambridge United vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Stevenage part of?
Cambridge United vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 3) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 49% chance of winning, Stevenage a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cambridge United and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Cambridge United vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambridge United's attack rating (1.07) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.84x) against Cambridge United's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Cambridge United's last 48 games and Stevenage's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.54
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.13
0.80
Stevenage xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
6%
16.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cambridge United vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cambridge United and 0.80 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambridge United's recent record stands at 15W 7D 26L from 48 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 9L across 48 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambridge United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cambridge United have managed 10W 4D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 8W 11D 5L across their last 24 away games, a 1.46 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambridge United are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.33 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
Cambridge United (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cambridge United
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Cambridge United vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Cambridge United and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 15W 7D 26L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 26W 13D 9L in their last 48 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Stevenage away?
Stevenage's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.42 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Cambridge United or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambridge United have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Stevenage in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambridge United have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambridge United
0
Draws
3
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Cambridge United vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Stevenage?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cambridge United have won 1, Stevenage have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2025: Cambridge United 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 42%, Stevenage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Cambridge United and 25% for Stevenage.
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cambridge United have failed to score in 33% of games; Stevenage in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cambridge United vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cambridge United and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 50% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cambridge United and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cambridge United's recent games and 25% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 71% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Cambridge United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Cambridge United 1-2 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.33 xG and Stevenage 0.80 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stevenage outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Stevenage attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 49% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 22%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Stevenage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 42%, Stevenage 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Cambridge United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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