Burton Albion 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 58%, yet the head-to-head data favours Shrewsbury — this Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shrewsbury make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Friday 29 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Burton Albion's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Burton Albion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shrewsbury (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.00 for Shrewsbury. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Shrewsbury, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2023, ended Burton Albion 1–2 Shrewsbury — a Shrewsbury win.
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 48% versus Shrewsbury 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 49% | Shrewsbury 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.45 xG and Shrewsbury 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.881 / defence 0.974 | Shrewsbury attack 0.531 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.121. Shrewsbury's defence rating of 1.205 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Burton Albion's projected output up. Shrewsbury's attack rating of 0.531 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 69 games and Shrewsbury's last 70.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 58% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 14%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.72 | Draw 3.61 | Shrewsbury 7.00. The model has a clear lean to Burton Albion (58%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Shrewsbury's lower xG of 0.58 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Shrewsbury's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 60% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, matchday 25 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 58% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Burton Albion 1.45 / Shrewsbury 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.881 / def 0.974 | Shrewsbury attack 0.531 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Shrewsbury xG
34%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 29 December 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Burton Albion 1 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury part of?
Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury is a League One fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 58% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 14% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Burton Albion and Shrewsbury will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 0.88x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.53x) against Burton Albion's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 69 games and Shrewsbury's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 2-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
58%
1.72
28%
3.61
14%
7.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.03
0.58
Shrewsbury xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
7.00
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
32%
3.08
3%
29.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.58 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 21W 17D 31L from 69 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Shrewsbury, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 34L across 69 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.23 for Shrewsbury. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 13W 10D 11L from their last 34 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shrewsbury's away record stands at 8W 6D 20L across their last 34 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.96 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
Burton Albion (Home) vs Shrewsbury (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
❓ Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 21W 17D 31L in their last 69 games (1.16 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 25W 10D 34L in their last 69 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Shrewsbury away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.44 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Burton Albion and Shrewsbury, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Burton Albion have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shrewsbury won Burton Albion 0-4 Shrewsbury on 14 Jan 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Burton Albion
0
Draws
4
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Shrewsbury?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 4, Shrewsbury have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Shrewsbury last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Shrewsbury 0-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 47%, Shrewsbury 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Burton Albion) and 35% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 35% of games; Shrewsbury in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Shrewsbury matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 29% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Shrewsbury matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Burton Albion's recent games and 35% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Shrewsbury matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 65% of Shrewsbury's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Shrewsbury 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.45 xG and Shrewsbury 0.58 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Shrewsbury attack 0.53 / defence 1.21, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 58% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 14%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Shrewsbury 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.16 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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