Burton Albion 0-2 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Portsmouth at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Portsmouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 9 as Burton Albion welcome Portsmouth to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Burton Albion — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portsmouth stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Portsmouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Portsmouth's 2.30 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Burton Albion, 1 for Portsmouth and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Portsmouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 51% versus Portsmouth 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Portsmouth 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 0.79 xG and Portsmouth 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.665 / defence 1.266 | Portsmouth attack 1.119 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.134. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Burton Albion games / 53 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 17% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 56%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Portsmouth 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 30% | Portsmouth 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 17% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Burton Albion 0.79 / Portsmouth 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.665 / def 1.266 | Portsmouth attack 1.119 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Portsmouth xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Portsmouth kick off?
Burton Albion vs Portsmouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Burton Albion 0 - 2 Portsmouth.
Where is Burton Albion vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Portsmouth part of?
Burton Albion vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 17% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Burton Albion and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Portsmouth?
Record (2 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 0 | Portsmouth 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Portsmouth in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Portsmouth (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Portsmouth's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
17%
5.77
27%
3.71
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.40
1.61
Portsmouth xG
5.77
17%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
3%
28.81
25%
3.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.6 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.61 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 14W 12D 27L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Portsmouth's form line: 25W 15D 13L from 53 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Portsmouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 8W 9D 9L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Portsmouth's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.57 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Portsmouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 games (1.02 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 25W 15D 13L in their last 53 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Portsmouth away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.38 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Portsmouth have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
0
Draws
5
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Portsmouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Portsmouth have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2024, when Portsmouth 2-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Portsmouth?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 50%, Portsmouth 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Burton Albion) and 38% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 38%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 35% of games; Portsmouth in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 42% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Burton Albion's recent games and 38% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Burton Albion 0-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 0.79 xG and Portsmouth 1.61 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.67 / defence 1.27 against Portsmouth attack 1.12 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 17% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 56%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Portsmouth 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Portsmouth's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.