Burton Albion 0-0 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 3 as Burton Albion welcome Port Vale to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Port Vale have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Port Vale have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Burton Albion at 1.40 PPG versus Port Vale's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Burton Albion, 2 for Port Vale and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Port Vale winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 56% versus Port Vale 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 54% | Port Vale 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.75 xG and Port Vale 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.080 / defence 1.035 | Port Vale attack 0.846 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.086. Data: 48 Burton Albion games / 2 Port Vale games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 56% | Draw 24% | Port Vale 20%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Port Vale 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Burton Albion (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 90% | Port Vale 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 56% | Draw 24% | Port Vale 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Burton Albion 1.75 / Port Vale 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.080 / def 1.035 | Port Vale attack 0.846 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Port Vale xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Port Vale kick off?
Burton Albion vs Port Vale kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Burton Albion 0 - 0 Port Vale.
Where is Burton Albion vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Port Vale part of?
Burton Albion vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 56% chance of winning, Port Vale a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Burton Albion and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Port Vale?
Record (4 meetings): Burton Albion 2W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 2W.
What form are Burton Albion and Port Vale in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Port Vale (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burton Albion's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.24
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.71
0.95
Port Vale xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
4%
28.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.95 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 12W 14D 22L from 48 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 11L across 48 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port Vale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port Vale by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 10W 7D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Port Vale in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Port Vale
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 12W 14D 22L in their last 48 games (1.04 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 22W 15D 11L in their last 48 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.12 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Port Vale in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
2
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Port Vale have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Port Vale 2-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 67%, Port Vale 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Burton Albion) and 46% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Port Vale in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Burton Albion's games and 54% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Burton Albion's recent games and 46% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Port Vale tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burton Albion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion and Port Vale finished level at 0-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.75 xG and Port Vale 0.95 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Port Vale landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Port Vale attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 56% | Draw 24% | Port Vale 20%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 54%, Port Vale 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port Vale's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.