Burton Albion 1-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burton Albion at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mansfield Town make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Burton Albion's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Burton Albion at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Mansfield Town (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mansfield Town away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Burton Albion's 1.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Mansfield Town's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 6.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Burton Albion 3–3 Mansfield Town — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Mansfield Town 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 47% | Mansfield Town 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Burton Albion surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Mansfield Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.64 xG and Mansfield Town 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.985 / defence 1.280 | Mansfield Town attack 1.064 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.158. Mansfield Town's defence rating of 1.299 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Burton Albion's projected output up. Burton Albion's defence rating of 1.280 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mansfield Town's projected output up. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 79 games and Mansfield Town's last 32.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 39% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 37%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.53 | Draw 4.23 | Mansfield Town 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Mansfield Town's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 50% (last 10 home games) | Mansfield Town 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, matchday 34 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 39% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Burton Albion 1.64 / Mansfield Town 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.985 / def 1.280 | Mansfield Town attack 1.064 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Mansfield Town xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town part of?
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town is a League One fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 39% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Burton Albion and Mansfield Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.98) and Mansfield Town's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (1.06x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 79 games and Mansfield Town's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
39%
2.53
24%
4.23
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
3.22
1.58
Mansfield Town xG
2.53
39%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.28
7%
13.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.58 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burton Albion come into this having played 78 games, going 19W 21D 38L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.59 PPG from 78 outings (35W 19D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Mansfield Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Burton Albion's home form reads 10W 8D 21L across their last 39 home games, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.54 points per game from their last 39 away games (17W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.65 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 62%.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs Mansfield Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 19W 21D 38L in their last 78 games (1.00 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 35W 19D 24L in their last 78 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 0.97 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
4
Draws
0
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Mansfield Town?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Mansfield Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Burton Albion 2-2 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Mansfield Town?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 51%, Mansfield Town 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Burton Albion) and 64% (Mansfield Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Mansfield Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Burton Albion's games and 67% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Burton Albion and Mansfield Town matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 49% of Burton Albion's matches and 64% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Burton Albion and Mansfield Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 82% of Mansfield Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Mansfield Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Burton Albion and Mansfield Town drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.64 xG and Mansfield Town 1.58 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.98 / defence 1.28 against Mansfield Town attack 1.06 / defence 1.30, drawn from 79/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 39% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 37%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 47%, Mansfield Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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