Burton Albion 0-1 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Exeter City at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face Exeter City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Exeter City meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Burton Albion's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Burton Albion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Exeter City (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Exeter City have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Burton Albion, 0 for Exeter City and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended Burton Albion 1–0 Exeter City — a Burton Albion win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Exeter City — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Exeter City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Exeter City 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.07 xG and Exeter City 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.924 / defence 1.097 | Exeter City attack 1.113 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.097. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 51 games and Exeter City's last 51.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 30% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 43%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.36 | Draw 3.66 | Exeter City 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Exeter City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 60% (last 10 home games) | Exeter City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Exeter City | Competition: League One, matchday 6 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 30% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Burton Albion 1.07 / Exeter City 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.924 / def 1.097 | Exeter City attack 1.113 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Exeter City xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Exeter City FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Exeter City kick off?
Burton Albion vs Exeter City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Exeter City.
Where is Burton Albion vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Exeter City part of?
Burton Albion vs Exeter City is a League One fixture (matchday 6) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 30% chance of winning, Exeter City a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Burton Albion and Exeter City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Burton Albion vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Exeter City's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Exeter City's attack (1.11x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 51 games and Exeter City's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
30%
3.36
27%
3.66
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.41
1.34
Exeter City xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Exeter City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.34 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 15W 13D 23L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Exeter City's form line: 18W 12D 21L from 51 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.29 for Exeter City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.40 PPG from their last 25 home games (9W 8D 8L).
On the road, Exeter City have gone 7W 5D 13L from their last 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.39 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Exeter City
Early Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs Exeter City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Early Season
Exeter City
Early Season
❓ Burton Albion vs Exeter City Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 15W 13D 23L in their last 51 games (1.14 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Exeter City away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.40 PPG; Exeter City away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Burton Albion and Exeter City, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Exeter City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
3
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Exeter City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Exeter City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 2, Exeter City have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Exeter City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Burton Albion 1-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Exeter City?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 44%, Exeter City 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Burton Albion) and 48% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Exeter City in 32%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 36% of games; Exeter City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Exeter City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Exeter City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 44% of Exeter City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Exeter City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Burton Albion's recent games and 48% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Exeter City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 64% of Exeter City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Exeter City edge out Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.07 xG and Exeter City 1.34 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Exeter City attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 30% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 43%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Exeter City 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Exeter City's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.14 PPG, Exeter City 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Exeter City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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