Burton Albion 1-2 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pirelli Stadium plays host to Burton Albion versus Cheltenham in League One, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Tuesday 16 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Burton Albion (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cheltenham's overall League One record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Cheltenham have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Burton Albion against 0.50 for Cheltenham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Burton Albion 1W, Cheltenham 0W, 4D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 48% versus Cheltenham 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 47% | Cheltenham 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 0.83 xG and Cheltenham 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.625 / defence 1.320 | Cheltenham attack 0.773 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.181. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.625 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 89 Burton Albion games / 88 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 25% | Draw 30% | Cheltenham 45%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Cheltenham 2.22. Cheltenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 30% | Cheltenham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 25% | Draw 30% | Cheltenham 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Burton Albion 0.83 / Cheltenham 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.625 / def 1.320 | Cheltenham attack 0.773 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cheltenham xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Cheltenham kick off?
Burton Albion vs Cheltenham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 April 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Burton Albion 1 - 2 Cheltenham.
Where is Burton Albion vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Cheltenham part of?
Burton Albion vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 25% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Burton Albion and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Cheltenham?
Record (5 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 4 | Cheltenham 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and Cheltenham in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Cheltenham (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 0.62x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.77x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 89/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
25%
3.97
30%
3.33
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.03
1.21
Cheltenham xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
8%
13.23
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.8 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.21 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 26W 21D 41L from 88 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Cheltenham, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 44L across 88 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.05 for Cheltenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 15W 11D 18L from 44 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cheltenham's away record stands at 10W 8D 26L across 44 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 0.91 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 88 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Cheltenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 26W 21D 41L in their last 88 games (1.12 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 24W 20D 44L in their last 88 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Cheltenham away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.27 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cheltenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
4
Draws
1
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Cheltenham?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Cheltenham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2024, when Burton Albion 1-2 Cheltenham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 43%, Cheltenham 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Burton Albion) and 43% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 39% of games; Cheltenham in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 36% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Burton Albion's recent games and 43% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cheltenham edge out Burton Albion 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Burton Albion 1-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 0.83 xG and Cheltenham 1.21 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.62 / defence 1.32 against Cheltenham attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 89/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 25% | Draw 30% | Cheltenham 45%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 47%, Cheltenham 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Cheltenham's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.12 PPG, Cheltenham 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.