Burton Albion 1-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pirelli Stadium plays host to Burton Albion versus Cambridge United in League One, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cambridge United's overall League One record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.40 for Cambridge United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burton Albion lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 3–4 with Cambridge United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (90 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cambridge United — key trading statistics (90 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 52% versus Cambridge United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Cambridge United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.79 xG and Cambridge United 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.117 / defence 1.191 | Cambridge United attack 0.813 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.139. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 90 Burton Albion games / 90 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 53% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 23%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Cambridge United 4.35. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Burton Albion 50% | Cambridge United 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 53% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Burton Albion 1.79 / Cambridge United 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.117 / def 1.191 | Cambridge United attack 0.813 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cambridge United xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Cambridge United kick off?
Burton Albion vs Cambridge United kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Cambridge United?
Burton Albion 1 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Burton Albion vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Cambridge United part of?
Burton Albion vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 53% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Burton Albion and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Cambridge United?
Record (3 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 1 | Cambridge United 2W.
What form are Burton Albion and Cambridge United in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Cambridge United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 1.12x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.81x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 90/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.21
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.89
1.10
Cambridge United xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
4%
25.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.10 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 90 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 28W 21D 41L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Cambridge United's form line: 27W 20D 43L from 90 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.12 for Cambridge United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.50 PPG from 44 outings (18W 12D 14L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 11W 8D 25L from 44 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.06 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 90 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 28W 21D 41L in their last 90 games (1.17 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 27W 20D 43L in their last 90 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Cambridge United away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.50 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambridge United won 3-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Burton Albion
2
Draws
3
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Cambridge United?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 3, Cambridge United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Burton Albion 2-1 Cambridge United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 52%, Cambridge United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Burton Albion) and 52% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 30% of games; Cambridge United in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 52% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Burton Albion's recent games and 52% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Cambridge United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Cambridge United 1-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.79 xG and Cambridge United 1.10 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.12 / defence 1.19 against Cambridge United attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 53% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 23%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Cambridge United 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (90 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambridge United's trading profile (90 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.17 PPG, Cambridge United 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.