Bolton 1-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bolton vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bolton and Stevenage meet at Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 46. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bolton's overall League One record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bolton's home record at Toughsheet Community Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bolton are significantly better at Toughsheet Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Stevenage have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stevenage's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bolton lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 4–1 with Bolton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bolton — key trading statistics (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Stevenage — key trading statistics (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 56% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 55% | Stevenage 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.19 xG and Stevenage 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.048 / defence 1.098 | Stevenage attack 0.694 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.174. Data: 91 Bolton games / 91 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 42% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 27%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Stevenage 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bolton as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 60% | Stevenage 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 42% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Bolton 1.19 / Stevenage 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.048 / def 1.098 | Stevenage attack 0.694 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Bolton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Stevenage xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Stevenage kick off?
Bolton vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Stevenage?
Bolton 1 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Bolton vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Stevenage part of?
Bolton vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 42% chance of winning, Stevenage a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bolton and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Stevenage?
Record (3 meetings): Bolton 2W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Bolton and Stevenage in?
Bolton (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Stevenage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bolton's attack rating (1.05) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.69x) against Bolton's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 91/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
42%
2.36
31%
3.26
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.09
0.90
Stevenage xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bolton and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Bolton and 0.90 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 91 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 43W 19D 29L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Stevenage's form line: 34W 25D 32L from 91 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Bolton against 1.40 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.78 PPG from 45 outings (24W 8D 13L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 15W 12D 18L from 45 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bolton are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.08 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 43W 19D 29L in their last 91 games (1.63 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 34W 25D 32L in their last 91 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Stevenage away?
Bolton's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.78 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Bolton or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Stevenage in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won 5-1 on 14 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bolton have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bolton
3
Draws
0
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Bolton have won 3, Stevenage have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2026, when Bolton 5-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Stevenage?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 58%, Stevenage 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Bolton) and 42% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 40%; Stevenage in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bolton's recent matches and 38% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Bolton's recent games and 42% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Stevenage tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bolton and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 46, as Bolton and Stevenage drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.19 xG and Stevenage 0.90 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Stevenage attack 0.69 / defence 0.88, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 42% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 27%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 55%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.63 PPG, Stevenage 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.