Bolton 1-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bolton face Peterborough.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Peterborough make the trip to Toughsheet Community Stadium to face Bolton in League One (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Bolton (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bolton have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Peterborough have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Bolton against 1.60 for Peterborough. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Bolton edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended Bolton 5–0 Peterborough — a Bolton win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bolton — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Peterborough — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 40% versus Peterborough 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 40% | Peterborough 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.40 xG and Peterborough 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.202 / defence 1.015 | Peterborough attack 1.121 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.136. Data: built from Bolton's last 53 games and Peterborough's last 54.
Result probabilities: Bolton 40% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 35%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.53 | Draw 3.87 | Peterborough 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bolton 40% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 9 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 40% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Bolton 1.40 / Peterborough 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.202 / def 1.015 | Peterborough attack 1.121 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Bolton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Peterborough xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bolton vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Bolton vs Peterborough kick off?
Bolton vs Peterborough kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Peterborough?
Bolton 1 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Bolton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Peterborough part of?
Bolton vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 9) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 40% chance of winning, Peterborough a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bolton and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bolton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bolton's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.12x) against Bolton's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Bolton's last 53 games and Peterborough's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
40%
2.53
26%
3.87
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.69
1.29
Peterborough xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bolton vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Bolton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Bolton and 1.29 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 27W 14D 14L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Peterborough's form line: 28W 6D 21L from 55 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Bolton against 1.64 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bolton have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 27 home games (16W 6D 5L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 12W 1D 14L from their last 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bolton are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.62 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Peterborough in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Early Season
Peterborough
Blended
Bolton (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bolton
Early Season
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Bolton vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Bolton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 27W 14D 14L in their last 55 games (1.73 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 28W 6D 21L in their last 55 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Peterborough away?
Bolton's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 2.00 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Bolton or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Peterborough in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 10 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won Peterborough 0-5 Bolton on 11 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bolton have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bolton
3
Draws
1
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Bolton vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Peterborough?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bolton have won 4, Peterborough have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2026: Peterborough 3-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Peterborough?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 33%, Peterborough 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bolton) and 56% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Bolton have failed to score in 26% of games; Peterborough in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bolton vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bolton and Peterborough matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bolton's recent matches and 48% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bolton and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bolton's recent games and 56% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Bolton's recent matches and 67% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bolton and Peterborough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Bolton and Peterborough drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.40 xG and Peterborough 1.29 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.20 / defence 1.01 against Peterborough attack 1.12 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 40% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 35%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 40%, Peterborough 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.73 PPG, Peterborough 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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