Birmingham 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Birmingham at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Birmingham vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 32 as Birmingham welcome Charlton to St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Birmingham — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Birmingham's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.40 PPG (Birmingham) versus 2.30 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Birmingham, 1 for Charlton and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Birmingham trading profile (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Charlton trading profile (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 50% versus Charlton 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 43% | Charlton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.64 xG and Charlton 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 1.189 / defence 0.690 | Charlton attack 1.148 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.175. Birmingham's defence rating of 0.690 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Birmingham games / 76 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 54% | Draw 25% | Charlton 21%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Charlton 4.76. Birmingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Birmingham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Birmingham 20% | Charlton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 54% | Draw 25% | Charlton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Birmingham 1.64 / Charlton 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 1.189 / def 0.690 | Charlton attack 1.148 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Charlton xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs Charlton kick off?
Birmingham vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Charlton?
Birmingham 1 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Birmingham vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
What competition is Birmingham vs Charlton part of?
Birmingham vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 54% chance of winning, Charlton a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Birmingham and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Birmingham 0W | Draws 0 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Birmingham and Charlton in?
Birmingham (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Birmingham's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Birmingham's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
54%
1.86
25%
3.94
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Birmingham xG
Total xG
2.57
0.93
Charlton xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
4%
24.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Birmingham and 0.93 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Birmingham's recent record stands at 33W 17D 24L from 74 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 24W 28D 22L across 74 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Birmingham on 1.57 PPG, Charlton on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Birmingham have managed 20W 9D 7L from 36 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 8W 15D 13L across 36 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Birmingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Birmingham are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.39 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 65%.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and Charlton in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 33W 17D 24L in their last 74 games (1.57 PPG), while Charlton have gone 24W 28D 22L in their last 74 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Charlton away?
Birmingham's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.92 PPG; Charlton away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Birmingham or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Charlton in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Birmingham and Charlton runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Birmingham's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Birmingham
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 1, Charlton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Charlton 1-0 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 47%, Charlton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Birmingham) and 44% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Birmingham's games and 64% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Birmingham vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Birmingham's recent games and 44% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Charlton tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Charlton in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Birmingham edge out Charlton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham beat Charlton 1-0 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.64 xG and Charlton 0.93 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charlton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.19 / defence 0.69 against Charlton attack 1.15 / defence 1.06, drawn from 28/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 54% | Draw 25% | Charlton 21%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 43%, Charlton 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Birmingham 1.57 PPG, Charlton 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Birmingham win broke the near-deadlock. Birmingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.