Accrington ST 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shrewsbury at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wham Stadium plays host to Accrington ST versus Shrewsbury in League One, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Accrington ST's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Wham Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Shrewsbury (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shrewsbury away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Shrewsbury are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Accrington ST 2W, Shrewsbury 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Accrington ST winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 51% versus Shrewsbury 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 52% | Shrewsbury 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 0.76 xG and Shrewsbury 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.832 / defence 1.236 | Shrewsbury attack 0.935 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.146. Shrewsbury's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 75 Accrington ST games / 77 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 21% | Draw 30% | Shrewsbury 49%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Shrewsbury 2.04. Shrewsbury hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Accrington ST dominate the H2H record, yet Shrewsbury are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shrewsbury at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 40% | Shrewsbury 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 21% | Draw 30% | Shrewsbury 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Accrington ST 0.76 / Shrewsbury 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.832 / def 1.236 | Shrewsbury attack 0.935 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Shrewsbury xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury?
Accrington ST 1 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury part of?
Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 21% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Accrington ST and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Shrewsbury?
Record (3 meetings): Accrington ST 2W | Draws 1 | Shrewsbury 0W.
What form are Accrington ST and Shrewsbury in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Shrewsbury (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Shrewsbury's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.94x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 75/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
21%
4.86
30%
3.33
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.08
1.32
Shrewsbury xG
4.86
21%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
5%
18.27
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 16.5 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.32 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Accrington ST's recent record stands at 23W 19D 33L from 75 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Shrewsbury, meanwhile, have gone 26W 20D 29L across 75 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.31 for Shrewsbury. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Accrington ST have managed 15W 11D 11L from 37 games — 1.51 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shrewsbury's away record stands at 9W 11D 17L across 37 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 1.15 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 23W 19D 33L in their last 75 games (1.17 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 26W 20D 29L in their last 75 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Shrewsbury away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.51 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Accrington ST
2
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Shrewsbury?
From 6 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 3, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Accrington ST 0-2 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Shrewsbury?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 60%, Shrewsbury 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Accrington ST) and 32% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury in 38%; Shrewsbury in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 38% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Accrington ST's recent games and 32% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 0.76 xG and Shrewsbury 1.32 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against Shrewsbury attack 0.94 / defence 0.71, drawn from 75/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 21% | Draw 30% | Shrewsbury 49%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Accrington ST win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 52%, Shrewsbury 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.17 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.