West Brom 2-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Hawthorns plays host to West Brom versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 October 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Brom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 4W 4D 2L at The Hawthorns — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
QPR (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward West Brom. A 0.90 PPG lead over QPR (1.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: West Brom 2W, QPR 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 52% versus QPR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 41% | QPR 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.26 xG and QPR 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.926 / defence 0.843 | QPR attack 0.807 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.252. Data: 58 West Brom games / 58 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 45% | Draw 30% | QPR 24%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | QPR 4.17. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 60% | QPR 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 45% | Draw 30% | QPR 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG West Brom 1.26 / QPR 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.926 / def 0.843 | QPR attack 0.807 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: West Brom (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.85
QPR xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs QPR kick off?
West Brom vs QPR kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 24 October 2023 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs QPR?
West Brom 2 - 0 QPR.
Where is West Brom vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs QPR part of?
West Brom vs QPR is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 45% chance of winning, QPR a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both West Brom and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and QPR?
Record (4 meetings): West Brom 2W | Draws 1 | QPR 1W.
What form are West Brom and QPR in?
West Brom (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. QPR (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
West Brom's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.81x) against West Brom's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.30
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.11
0.85
QPR xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
7%
14.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are West Brom and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for West Brom and 0.85 for QPR, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, West Brom have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 22W 17D 19L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 15W 13D 30L from 58 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, West Brom are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against QPR.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Brom have posted 1.76 PPG from 29 outings (14W 9D 6L).
On the road, QPR have gone 9W 7D 13L from 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.91 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and QPR in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 22W 17D 19L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while QPR have gone 15W 13D 30L in their last 58 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or QPR away?
West Brom's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.76 PPG; QPR away: 1.17 PPG.
Have West Brom or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, QPR in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
West Brom
2
Draws
2
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 6, QPR have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when West Brom 2-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and QPR?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 41%, QPR 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (West Brom) and 52% (QPR).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; QPR in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of West Brom's recent matches and 48% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of West Brom's recent games and 52% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and QPR tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, QPR in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat QPR 2-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.26 xG and QPR 0.85 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. QPR landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.93 / defence 0.84 against QPR attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 45% | Draw 30% | QPR 24%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. West Brom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.