West Brom 3-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Hawthorns plays host to West Brom versus Peterborough in Championship, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
West Brom (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's home record at The Hawthorns: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Championship appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Peterborough have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Peterborough have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in West Brom's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: West Brom 1W, Peterborough 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with West Brom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
West Brom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 33% versus Peterborough 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 33% | Peterborough 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.81 xG and Peterborough 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.911 / defence 0.795 | Peterborough attack 0.559 / defence 1.908. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.182. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.908 — this is suppressing West Brom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. West Brom's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 26 West Brom games / 24 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 68% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 10%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Peterborough 10.00. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Peterborough's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 40% | Peterborough 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Peterborough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 68% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 35% | xG West Brom 1.81 / Peterborough 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.911 / def 0.795 | Peterborough attack 0.559 / def 1.908 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: West Brom (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Peterborough xG
35%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Peterborough kick off?
West Brom vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Peterborough?
West Brom 3 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is West Brom vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Peterborough part of?
West Brom vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 68% chance of winning, Peterborough a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both West Brom and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Peterborough?
Record (1 meetings): West Brom 1W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 0W.
What form are West Brom and Peterborough in?
West Brom (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates West Brom's attack at 0.91x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 1.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.56x) against West Brom's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.53.
These ratings are built from 26/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (15.9%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
68%
1.46
22%
4.54
10%
10.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.33
0.53
Peterborough xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
10.32
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.90
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
40%
2.48
2%
63.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.9 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are West Brom and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for West Brom and 0.53 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
West Brom come into this having played 24 games, going 10W 8D 6L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 0.79 PPG from 24 outings (5W 4D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Peterborough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
West Brom's home form reads 6W 5D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 0.27 points per game from 11 outings (1W 0D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Peterborough's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Brom are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 0.88 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Peterborough in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 10W 8D 6L in their last 24 games (1.58 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 5W 4D 15L in their last 24 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Peterborough away?
West Brom's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 2.09 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.27 PPG.
Have West Brom or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Peterborough in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
West Brom
0
Draws
0
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Peterborough?
From 2 meetings on record, West Brom have won 2, Peterborough have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when West Brom 3-0 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Peterborough?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
West Brom see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 36%, Peterborough 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (West Brom) and 64% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Peterborough in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of West Brom's recent matches and 36% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of West Brom's recent games and 64% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Peterborough tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant West Brom run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Peterborough 3-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.81 xG and Peterborough 0.53 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.91 / defence 0.80 against Peterborough attack 0.56 / defence 1.91, drawn from 26/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 68% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 10%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 33%, Peterborough 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Peterborough's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.