Swansea 1-1 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Rotherham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Rotherham travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 February 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Swansea are significantly better at Swansea.com Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rotherham stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rotherham away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Swansea 1.00 PPG, Rotherham 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Swansea, 0 for Rotherham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Swansea trading profile (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Rotherham trading profile (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 52% versus Rotherham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 56% | Rotherham 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.77 xG and Rotherham 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.210 / defence 1.383 | Rotherham attack 0.662 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.088. Data: 79 Swansea games / 33 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 55% | Draw 24% | Rotherham 21%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Rotherham 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Swansea (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 70% | Rotherham 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Rotherham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 55% | Draw 24% | Rotherham 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Swansea 1.77 / Rotherham 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.210 / def 1.383 | Rotherham attack 0.662 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Swansea (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rotherham xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Rotherham kick off?
Swansea vs Rotherham kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 27 February 2023 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Rotherham?
Swansea 1 - 1 Rotherham.
Where is Swansea vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Rotherham part of?
Swansea vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 55% chance of winning, Rotherham a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Swansea and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Rotherham?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 1 | Rotherham 0W.
What form are Swansea and Rotherham in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Rotherham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Swansea's attack at 1.21x the league average against Rotherham's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.24
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.76
1.00
Rotherham xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
27.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Swansea and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Swansea and 1.00 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Rotherham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swansea come into this having played 79 games, going 27W 22D 30L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Rotherham sit at 1.59 PPG from 79 outings (35W 21D 23L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.30 PPG, Rotherham on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Swansea's home form reads 16W 10D 13L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.49 PPG return.
Away from home, Rotherham have taken 1.41 points per game from 39 outings (14W 13D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Swansea are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.34 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 27W 22D 30L in their last 79 games (1.30 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 35W 21D 23L in their last 79 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Rotherham away?
Swansea's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.49 PPG; Rotherham away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Swansea or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Rotherham in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swansea and Rotherham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Swansea have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Swansea's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Swansea
2
Draws
0
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Rotherham?
From 4 meetings on record, Swansea have won 2, Rotherham have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Swansea 1-0 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Rotherham?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Rotherham see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 51%, Rotherham 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Swansea) and 26% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rotherham in 51%; Swansea have failed to score in 26% of games; Rotherham in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Swansea's recent matches and 23% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Swansea's recent games and 26% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Rotherham tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea and Rotherham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Swansea and Rotherham drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.77 xG and Rotherham 1.00 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.21 / defence 1.38 against Rotherham attack 0.66 / defence 1.16, drawn from 79/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 55% | Draw 24% | Rotherham 21%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 56%, Rotherham 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Rotherham's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.30 PPG, Rotherham 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.