Swansea 0-1 QPR – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates QPR at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swansea face QPR.

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Full Analysis

Swansea.com Stadium plays host to Swansea versus QPR in Championship (matchday 40). Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Swansea's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Swansea at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

QPR have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

QPR's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Swansea, 1.80 for QPR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Swansea, 1 for QPR and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2023, ended Swansea 1–1 QPR — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

QPR half-time and goal-timing data (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 61% versus QPR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 58% | QPR 48%). Note also that QPR surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Swansea recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.95 xG and QPR 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.905 / defence 1.127 | QPR attack 0.792 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.209. QPR bring a tight defence (rating 0.782, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Swansea's projected output down. QPR's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Swansea's last 85 games and QPR's last 85.

Result probabilities: Swansea 31% | Draw 30% | QPR 38%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.18 | Draw 3.28 | QPR 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Swansea's last 10 home games and QPR's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swansea 60% (last 10 home games) | QPR 30% (last 10 away games).

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