Swansea 1-1 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Preston encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 34 as Swansea welcome Preston to Swansea.com Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Swansea's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Swansea.com Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium.
Preston — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Preston's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Swansea are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Swansea, 4 for Preston and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Preston winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Swansea in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Preston in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 46% versus Preston 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 46% | Preston 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.51 xG and Preston 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.147 / defence 0.855 | Preston attack 0.890 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.190. Data: 79 Swansea games / 79 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 50% | Draw 28% | Preston 21%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Preston 4.76. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 50% | Preston 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 50% | Draw 28% | Preston 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Swansea 1.51 / Preston 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.147 / def 0.855 | Preston attack 0.890 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Swansea (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Preston xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Preston kick off?
Swansea vs Preston kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Preston?
Swansea 1 - 1 Preston.
Where is Swansea vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Preston part of?
Swansea vs Preston is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 50% chance of winning, Preston a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Swansea and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Preston?
Record (9 meetings): Swansea 4W | Draws 1 | Preston 4W.
What form are Swansea and Preston in?
Swansea (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Preston (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 1.15x the league average against Preston's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.53
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.41
0.91
Preston xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
5%
21.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Swansea and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Swansea and 0.91 for Preston, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea come into this having played 79 games, going 30W 16D 33L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.24 PPG from 79 outings (22W 32D 25L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.34 PPG, Preston on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swansea's home form reads 18W 10D 11L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 0.97 points per game from 39 outings (8W 14D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Preston in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 30W 16D 33L in their last 79 games (1.34 PPG), while Preston have gone 22W 32D 25L in their last 79 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Preston away?
Swansea's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.64 PPG; Preston away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Swansea or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Preston in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Swansea won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Preston specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Swansea
2
Draws
4
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Preston?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 4, Preston have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Swansea 1-1 Preston.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 49%, Preston 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Swansea) and 49% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Preston in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Preston?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Swansea's games and 62% of Preston's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Swansea's recent games and 49% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Preston tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Preston in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea and Preston share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Swansea and Preston drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.51 xG and Preston 0.91 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.15 / defence 0.85 against Preston attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 50% | Draw 28% | Preston 21%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, Preston 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Preston's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.34 PPG, Preston 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.