Swansea 2-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swansea face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and Hull City meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Swansea (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Swansea's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hull City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hull City's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Swansea against 1.50 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Swansea's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) — Swansea have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Hull City in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Swansea, 1 for Hull City and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Swansea 1–1 Hull City — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Swansea — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Hull City — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 58% versus Hull City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 56% | Hull City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.26 xG and Hull City 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.879 / defence 0.995 | Hull City attack 1.101 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.214. Data: built from Swansea's last 62 games and Hull City's last 62.
Result probabilities: Swansea 35% | Draw 27% | Hull City 38%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.85 | Draw 3.75 | Hull City 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swansea 70% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 17 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 35% | Draw 27% | Hull City 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Swansea 1.26 / Hull City 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.879 / def 0.995 | Hull City attack 1.101 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Hull City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hull City xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swansea vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Swansea vs Hull City kick off?
Swansea vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Hull City?
Swansea 2 - 2 Hull City.
Where is Swansea vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Hull City part of?
Swansea vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 35% chance of winning, Hull City a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Swansea and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swansea vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.88) and Hull City's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.10x) against Swansea's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Swansea's last 62 games and Hull City's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.75
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.59
1.33
Hull City xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swansea vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Swansea and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Swansea and 1.33 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 23W 16D 23L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 21W 21D 20L from 62 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Swansea against 1.35 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 31 home games (13W 7D 11L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 9W 11D 11L from their last 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.18 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Hull City
Blended
Swansea (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swansea
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Swansea vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Swansea and Hull City in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 23W 16D 23L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Hull City have gone 21W 21D 20L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Hull City away?
Swansea's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.48 PPG; Hull City away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Swansea or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Hull City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Swansea and Hull City, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won Swansea 3-0 Hull City on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Swansea
4
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Swansea vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Hull City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Swansea have won 3, Hull City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Hull City 2-1 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 55%, Hull City 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Swansea) and 52% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Hull City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swansea vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swansea and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Swansea's recent matches and 55% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swansea and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Swansea's recent games and 52% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Swansea's recent matches and 64% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea and Hull City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea and Hull City finished level at 2-2 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.26 xG and Hull City 1.33 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Hull City attack 1.10 / defence 1.06, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 35% | Draw 27% | Hull City 38%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 56%, Hull City 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.37 PPG, Hull City 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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