Swansea vs Charlton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 25 as Swansea welcome Charlton to Swansea.com Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 4W 3D 3L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Swansea.com Stadium this season.
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Swansea carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Swansea, 0 for Charlton and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Swansea winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Swansea trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Charlton trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 53% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 51% | Charlton 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.53 xG and Charlton 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.862 / defence 0.704 | Charlton attack 0.823 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Charlton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Swansea's defence rating of 0.704 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Swansea games / 57 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 56% | Draw 26% | Charlton 18%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Charlton 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Swansea (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Swansea 50% | Charlton 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 56% | Draw 26% | Charlton 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Swansea 1.53 / Charlton 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.862 / def 0.704 | Charlton attack 0.823 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Swansea (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Charlton xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Charlton kick off?
Swansea vs Charlton is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Friday 1 January 2027 at Swansea.com Stadium.
Where is Swansea vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Charlton part of?
Swansea vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 56% chance of winning, Charlton a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Swansea and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Swansea 1W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Swansea and Charlton in?
Swansea (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Charlton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Swansea's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.88
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.29
0.76
Charlton xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
4%
25.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 11.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Swansea and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Swansea and 0.76 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 25W 12D 20L from 57 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 16W 19D 22L across 57 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.53 PPG, Charlton on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 14W 8D 7L from 29 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 5W 12D 12L across 29 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 0.95 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Charlton in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 25W 12D 20L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Charlton have gone 16W 19D 22L in their last 57 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Charlton away?
Swansea's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.72 PPG; Charlton away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Swansea
1
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Swansea have won 1, Charlton have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Swansea 3-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Charlton?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 55%, Charlton 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 41% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Charlton in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Swansea's games and 59% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 41% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Charlton tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Charlton in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.