Swansea vs Cardiff – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Cardiff at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Swansea have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 5W 3D 2L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium.
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swansea at 2.10 PPG versus Cardiff's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Swansea: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Cardiff, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 0–3 with Cardiff winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Swansea and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 53% versus Cardiff 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 51% | Cardiff 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.70 xG and Cardiff 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.955 / defence 0.748 | Cardiff attack 0.948 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.297. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Swansea's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Swansea games / 3 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 53% | Draw 29% | Cardiff 18%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Cardiff 5.56. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 40% | Cardiff 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 53% | Draw 29% | Cardiff 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Swansea 1.70 / Cardiff 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.955 / def 0.748 | Cardiff attack 0.948 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Swansea (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cardiff xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Cardiff kick off?
Swansea vs Cardiff is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
Where is Swansea vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Cardiff part of?
Swansea vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 53% chance of winning, Cardiff a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Swansea and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
Record (8 meetings): Swansea 5W | Draws 1 | Cardiff 2W.
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in?
Swansea (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Cardiff (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.95) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.42
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.62
0.92
Cardiff xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
3%
30.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Swansea and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Swansea and 0.92 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 21W 11D 17L from 49 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Swansea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 9L across 49 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cardiff by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Swansea heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 11W 7D 6L from 24 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 10W 9D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.94 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 21W 11D 17L in their last 49 games (1.51 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 27W 13D 9L in their last 49 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Cardiff away?
Swansea's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.67 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Swansea or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cardiff in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Swansea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Swansea
1
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, Swansea have won 5, Cardiff have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cardiff 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Cardiff?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 58%, Cardiff 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Swansea) and 50% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cardiff in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Swansea's games and 62% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Swansea's recent games and 50% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Cardiff tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.