Swansea 1-1 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Blackpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Blackpool make the trip to Swansea.com Stadium to face Swansea in Championship, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Swansea (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 4W 3D 1L from 8 Championship appearances (1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 8 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Blackpool's overall Championship record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Blackpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Blackpool have posted 3W 3D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Swansea against 2.00 for Blackpool. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Swansea — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Blackpool — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 47% versus Blackpool 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 65% | Blackpool 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.30 xG and Blackpool 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.996 / defence 0.841 | Blackpool attack 0.991 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.118. Blackpool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Swansea games / 17 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 44% | Draw 30% | Blackpool 26%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Blackpool 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 25% | Blackpool 88%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Blackpool | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 44% | Draw 30% | Blackpool 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Swansea 1.30 / Blackpool 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.996 / def 0.841 | Blackpool attack 0.991 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Swansea (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Blackpool xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Blackpool kick off?
Swansea vs Blackpool kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Blackpool?
Swansea 1 - 1 Blackpool.
Where is Swansea vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Blackpool part of?
Swansea vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 44% chance of winning, Blackpool a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Swansea and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackpool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swansea and Blackpool in?
Swansea (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Blackpool (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swansea's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Blackpool's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (0.99x) against Swansea's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.34
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.23
0.93
Blackpool xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Swansea and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Swansea and 0.93 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea's recent record stands at 6W 5D 6L from 17 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 6L across 17 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Blackpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Swansea against 1.47 for Blackpool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 4W 3D 1L from 8 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Swansea are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Blackpool's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.12 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Blackpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Blackpool away?
Swansea's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.88 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Swansea or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Blackpool in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Swansea have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Blackpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Swansea
1
Draws
1
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackpool?
From 4 meetings on record, Swansea have won 2, Blackpool have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2023, when Swansea 2-1 Blackpool.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Blackpool?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 25%, Blackpool 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Swansea) and 62% (Blackpool). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Swansea have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Blackpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Swansea's games and 88% of Blackpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Swansea's matches and 62% of Blackpool's.
Do Swansea and Blackpool tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Blackpool in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea and Blackpool share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea and Blackpool finished level at 1-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.30 xG and Blackpool 0.93 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.00 / defence 0.84 against Blackpool attack 0.99 / defence 1.23, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 44% | Draw 30% | Blackpool 26%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 65%, Blackpool 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackpool's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.35 PPG, Blackpool 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.