Stoke City 1-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stoke City at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stoke City host Hull City at Bet365 Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bet365 Stadium, Stoke City have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hull City have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stoke City 1.70 PPG, Hull City 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Stoke City have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Hull City have managed just 2 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Stoke City winning.
The historical record gives Stoke City a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stoke City trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hull City trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 43% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stoke City 38% | Hull City 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.89 xG and Hull City 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.219 / defence 0.741 | Hull City attack 1.150 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.190. Stoke City's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Stoke City games / 63 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 58% | Draw 23% | Hull City 20%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Hull City 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Stoke City (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stoke City as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stoke City 30% | Hull City 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 58% | Draw 23% | Hull City 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Stoke City 1.89 / Hull City 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 1.219 / def 0.741 | Hull City attack 1.150 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Hull City xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Hull City kick off?
Stoke City vs Hull City kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Hull City?
Stoke City 1 - 2 Hull City.
Where is Stoke City vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Hull City part of?
Stoke City vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 58% chance of winning, Hull City a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stoke City and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Hull City?
Record (8 meetings): Stoke City 5W | Draws 1 | Hull City 2W.
What form are Stoke City and Hull City in?
Stoke City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Hull City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (1.22) and Hull City's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
58%
1.74
23%
4.41
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.90
1.01
Hull City xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
33.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.01 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Hull City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 21W 18D 24L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City's form line: 19W 17D 27L from 63 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.29 PPG, Hull City on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (13W 10D 8L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 9W 7D 15L from 31 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stoke City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.14 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Hull City in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 21W 18D 24L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Hull City have gone 19W 17D 27L in their last 63 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Hull City away?
Stoke City's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.58 PPG; Hull City away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hull City in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and Hull City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2022, when Stoke City won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stoke City's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Stoke City
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 6, Hull City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Hull City 0-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Hull City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Hull City see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 48%, Hull City 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Stoke City) and 39% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Stoke City have failed to score in 29% of games; Hull City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Stoke City's recent matches and 48% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Stoke City's recent games and 39% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Hull City tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hull City in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Stoke City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Stoke City 1-2 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.89 xG and Hull City 1.01 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stoke City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Hull City outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.22 / defence 0.74 against Hull City attack 1.15 / defence 1.19, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 58% | Draw 23% | Hull City 20%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 38%, Hull City 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.29 PPG, Hull City 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.