Stoke City 1-0 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stoke City at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stoke City face Blackburn.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stoke City and Blackburn meet at bet365 Stadium in Championship (matchday 37). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 12 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Stoke City (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Stoke City have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Blackburn have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Blackburn's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Stoke City against 1.00 for Blackburn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Stoke City edge it 4 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2024, ended Stoke City 2–0 Blackburn — a Stoke City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Stoke City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 45% versus Blackburn 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 43% | Blackburn 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.09 xG and Blackburn 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.823 / defence 1.053 | Blackburn attack 0.889 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.038. Data: built from Stoke City's last 82 games and Blackburn's last 82.
Result probabilities: Stoke City 38% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 31%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.66 | Draw 3.21 | Blackburn 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stoke City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stoke City's last 10 home games and Blackburn's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stoke City 30% (last 10 home games) | Blackburn 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, matchday 37 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 38% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Stoke City 1.09 / Blackburn 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.823 / def 1.053 | Blackburn attack 0.889 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Blackburn xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stoke City vs Blackburn FAQs
What time does Stoke City vs Blackburn kick off?
Stoke City vs Blackburn kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 12 March 2025 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Stoke City 1 - 0 Blackburn.
Where is Stoke City vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Blackburn part of?
Stoke City vs Blackburn is a Championship fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 38% chance of winning, Blackburn a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Stoke City and Blackburn will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Stoke City vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (0.82) and Blackburn's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.89x) against Stoke City's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Stoke City's last 82 games and Blackburn's last 82 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
38%
2.66
31%
3.21
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.07
0.97
Blackburn xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stoke City vs Blackburn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Stoke City and 0.97 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 82 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 23W 23D 36L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Blackburn's form line: 29W 18D 35L from 82 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Stoke City against 1.28 for Blackburn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 41 home games (13W 14D 14L).
On the road, Blackburn have gone 13W 8D 20L from their last 41 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stoke City are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.23 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
Stoke City (Home) vs Blackburn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stoke City
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Stoke City vs Blackburn Form FAQs
What form are Stoke City and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 23W 23D 36L in their last 82 games (1.12 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 29W 18D 35L in their last 82 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Blackburn away?
Stoke City's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.29 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 3 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackburn won Stoke City 0-3 Blackburn on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stoke City have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Blackburn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Stoke City
2
Draws
2
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Stoke City vs Blackburn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Blackburn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stoke City have won 6, Blackburn have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Blackburn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2026: Blackburn 1-2 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Blackburn?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 42%, Blackburn 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stoke City) and 58% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Stoke City have failed to score in 39% of games; Blackburn in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stoke City vs Blackburn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stoke City and Blackburn matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stoke City's recent matches and 44% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stoke City and Blackburn matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stoke City's recent games and 58% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Blackburn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Stoke City's recent matches and 63% of Blackburn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stoke City edge out Blackburn 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat Blackburn 1-0 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.09 xG and Blackburn 0.97 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.82 / defence 1.05 against Blackburn attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 38% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 31%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 43%, Blackburn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Blackburn's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.12 PPG, Blackburn 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 37
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →