Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Preston – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 19 as Sheffield Wednesday welcome Preston to Hillsborough. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Wednesday's home record at Hillsborough: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Preston stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Preston have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sheffield Wednesday are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sheffield Wednesday, 1 for Preston and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Sheffield Wednesday winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sheffield Wednesday in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Preston in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 39% versus Preston 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 47% | Preston 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.63 xG and Preston 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.995 / defence 1.308 | Preston attack 0.875 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.055. Preston bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Sheffield Wednesday's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Sheffield Wednesday games / 64 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 46% | Draw 27% | Preston 27%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Preston 3.70. Sheffield Wednesday hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sheffield Wednesday are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sheffield Wednesday 40% | Preston 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 46% | Draw 27% | Preston 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.63 / Preston 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.995 / def 1.308 | Preston attack 0.875 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Preston xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 1 Preston.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 46% chance of winning, Preston a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Preston?
Record (2 meetings): Sheffield Wednesday 1W | Draws 0 | Preston 1W.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Preston in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Preston (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sheffield Wednesday's attack at 0.99x the league average against Preston's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.69
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.84
1.21
Preston xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
5%
18.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.21 for Preston, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Sheffield Wednesday have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 22W 12D 30L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Preston's form line: 21W 18D 25L from 64 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sheffield Wednesday on 1.22 PPG, Preston on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 1.39 PPG from 31 outings (11W 10D 10L).
On the road, Preston have gone 7W 9D 15L from 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.14 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Preston in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 22W 12D 30L in their last 64 games (1.22 PPG), while Preston have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Preston away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 1.39 PPG; Preston away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sheffield Wednesday and Preston runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Preston have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jan 2026, when Preston won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sheffield Wednesday's record when hosting Preston specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sheffield Wednesday
1
Draws
4
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Preston?
From 6 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 1, Preston have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Preston 3-0 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Preston?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 48%, Preston 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 48% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday have failed to score in 32% of games; Preston in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 42% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 48% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Preston tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Preston in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday and Preston share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday and Preston finished level at 1-1 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.63 xG and Preston 1.21 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.99 / defence 1.31 against Preston attack 0.88 / defence 1.22, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 46% | Draw 27% | Preston 27%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 47%, Preston 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Preston's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.22 PPG, Preston 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.