Sheffield Utd 0-3 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sheffield Utd (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sheffield Utd face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hull City make the trip to Bramall Lane to face Sheffield Utd in Championship (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Friday 24 January 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sheffield Utd's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sheffield Utd's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Sheffield Utd are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hull City (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hull City away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sheffield Utd. A 0.90 PPG lead over Hull City (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Sheffield Utd, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Hull City — Hull City have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Sheffield Utd 2–0 Hull City — a Sheffield Utd win.
The head-to-head data gives Sheffield Utd an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Sheffield Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 47% versus Hull City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 53% | Hull City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.23 xG and Hull City 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 0.947 / defence 0.764 | Hull City attack 0.885 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.019. Sheffield Utd have a tight defence (rating 0.764), which is pulling Hull City's projected output down. Data: built from Sheffield Utd's last 28 games and Hull City's last 74.
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 48% | Draw 32% | Hull City 20%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 2.07 | Draw 3.12 | Hull City 5.08. Sheffield Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sheffield Utd are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sheffield Utd's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sheffield Utd 10% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 29 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Friday 24 January 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 48% | Draw 32% | Hull City 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Sheffield Utd 1.23 / Hull City 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 0.947 / def 0.764 | Hull City attack 0.885 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Hull City xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Hull City kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Hull City kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 24 January 2025 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Sheffield Utd 0 - 3 Hull City.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Hull City part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 48% chance of winning, Hull City a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Sheffield Utd vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sheffield Utd's attack at 0.95x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.89x) against Sheffield Utd's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from Sheffield Utd's last 28 games and Hull City's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
48%
2.07
32%
3.12
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
1.92
0.69
Hull City xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
6%
17.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 0.69 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sheffield Utd come into this having played 66 games, going 21W 13D 32L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.23 PPG from 66 outings (21W 18D 27L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Sheffield Utd against 1.23 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sheffield Utd's home form reads 12W 6D 14L across their last 32 home games, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 32 away games (12W 6D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.24 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Sheffield Utd (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Sheffield Utd and Hull City in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 21W 13D 32L in their last 66 games (1.15 PPG), while Hull City have gone 21W 18D 27L in their last 66 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Hull City away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.31 PPG; Hull City away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hull City won Sheffield Utd 0-3 Hull City on 24 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Utd have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sheffield Utd
1
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Hull City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sheffield Utd have won 5, Hull City have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Sheffield Utd 2-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Hull City?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 41%, Hull City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sheffield Utd) and 56% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Hull City in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sheffield Utd and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 56% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sheffield Utd and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sheffield Utd's matches and 56% of Hull City's.
Do Sheffield Utd and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 66% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hull City run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sheffield Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Sheffield Utd 0-3 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.23 xG and Hull City 0.69 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Utd fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Hull City outscored their 0.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.95 / defence 0.76 against Hull City attack 0.89 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 48% | Draw 32% | Hull City 20%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 53%, Hull City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.15 PPG, Hull City 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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