Rotherham 2-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sunderland at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rotherham vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Sunderland travel to AESSEAL New York Stadium to take on Rotherham. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 February 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Rotherham have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rotherham have posted 2W 3D 5L at AESSEAL New York Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sunderland stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sunderland's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sunderland are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rotherham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sunderland in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Rotherham, 1 for Sunderland and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rotherham in-play tendencies (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sunderland in-play tendencies (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 37% versus Sunderland 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 38% | Sunderland 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 1.14 xG and Sunderland 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.991 / defence 1.230 | Sunderland attack 1.231 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.112. Sunderland have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Rotherham games / 32 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rotherham 25% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 50%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Sunderland 2.00. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Rotherham 60% | Sunderland 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 25% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Rotherham 1.14 / Sunderland 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 0.991 / def 1.230 | Sunderland attack 1.231 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Sunderland xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs Sunderland kick off?
Rotherham vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 February 2023 at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Sunderland?
Rotherham 2 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Rotherham vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Sunderland part of?
Rotherham vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 25% chance of winning, Sunderland a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rotherham and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Sunderland?
Record (3 meetings): Rotherham 1W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Rotherham and Sunderland in?
Rotherham (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rotherham's attack rating (0.99) and Sunderland's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
25%
3.98
25%
3.96
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.82
1.68
Sunderland xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
19%
5.39
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
5%
21.46
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Rotherham and 1.68 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rotherham come into this having played 78 games, going 34W 21D 23L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.72 PPG from 78 outings (37W 23D 18L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rotherham on 1.58 PPG, Sunderland on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rotherham's home form reads 20W 8D 10L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.50 points per game from 38 outings (14W 15D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Rotherham are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.62 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Sunderland in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 34W 21D 23L in their last 78 games (1.58 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 37W 23D 18L in their last 78 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Sunderland away?
Rotherham's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.79 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Rotherham or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Sunderland in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rotherham and Sunderland runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Rotherham won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rotherham's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rotherham
2
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 2, Sunderland have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2023, when Rotherham 1-1 Sunderland.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 53%, Sunderland 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Rotherham) and 55% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Rotherham keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Rotherham's games and 58% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rotherham vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Rotherham's recent games and 55% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and Sunderland tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rotherham defy the odds to beat Sunderland 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rotherham beat Sunderland 2-1 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.14 xG and Sunderland 1.68 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rotherham beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.99 / defence 1.23 against Sunderland attack 1.23 / defence 0.92, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 25% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 50%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Rotherham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 38%, Sunderland 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rotherham 1.58 PPG, Sunderland 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rotherham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.