Rotherham 0-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rotherham at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rotherham vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rotherham and Plymouth meet at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 41. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rotherham's overall Championship record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rotherham have posted 2W 2D 6L at AESSEAL New York Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Plymouth (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Championship this season, Plymouth have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.40 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Rotherham 2W, Plymouth 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–3 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rotherham half-time and goal-timing data (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 50% versus Plymouth 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 51% | Plymouth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 0.99 xG and Plymouth 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.691 / defence 0.978 | Plymouth attack 0.767 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.228. Rotherham's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 86 Rotherham games / 40 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rotherham 36% | Draw 32% | Plymouth 32%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Plymouth 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rotherham as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rotherham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rotherham 30% | Plymouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 36% | Draw 32% | Plymouth 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Rotherham 0.99 / Plymouth 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 0.691 / def 0.978 | Plymouth attack 0.767 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Plymouth xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs Plymouth kick off?
Rotherham vs Plymouth kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 5 April 2024 at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Plymouth?
Rotherham 0 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Rotherham vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Plymouth part of?
Rotherham vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 36% chance of winning, Plymouth a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Rotherham and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Plymouth?
Record (3 meetings): Rotherham 2W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Rotherham and Plymouth in?
Rotherham (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Plymouth (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rotherham's attack at 0.69x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.77x) against Rotherham's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 86/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
36%
2.78
32%
3.16
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Rotherham xG
Total xG
1.91
0.92
Plymouth xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 13.6 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Rotherham and 0.92 for Plymouth, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 86 outings, Rotherham have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 15W 28D 43L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 41W 19D 26L from 86 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rotherham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rotherham have posted 1.21 PPG from 43 outings (13W 13D 17L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 13W 14D 16L from 43 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rotherham are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.59 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 86 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 15W 28D 43L in their last 86 games (0.85 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 41W 19D 26L in their last 86 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.21 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Rotherham or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Plymouth in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rotherham have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rotherham
0
Draws
3
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Plymouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 3, Plymouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Rotherham 1-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 60%, Plymouth 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Rotherham) and 56% (Plymouth).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rotherham's games and 60% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rotherham vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Rotherham's recent games and 56% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and Plymouth tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Rotherham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Rotherham 0-1 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 0.99 xG and Plymouth 0.92 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rotherham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.69 / defence 0.98 against Plymouth attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 86/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 36% | Draw 32% | Plymouth 32%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 51%, Plymouth 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plymouth's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.