Rotherham 0-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rotherham at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rotherham face Birmingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Birmingham travel to AESSEAL New York Stadium to take on Rotherham in Championship (matchday 44). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Rotherham — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Rotherham at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Birmingham have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Birmingham's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rotherham 0.40 PPG, Birmingham 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Rotherham, 1 for Birmingham and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Rotherham 0–0 Birmingham — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rotherham in-play tendencies (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Birmingham in-play tendencies (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 48% versus Birmingham 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 49% | Birmingham 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 1.09 xG and Birmingham 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.654 / defence 1.019 | Birmingham attack 0.801 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.141. Rotherham's attack rating of 0.654 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Birmingham's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rotherham's projected output up. Data: built from Rotherham's last 89 games and Birmingham's last 89.
Result probabilities: Rotherham 39% | Draw 31% | Birmingham 31%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 2.58 | Draw 3.27 | Birmingham 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rotherham as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rotherham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rotherham's last 10 home games and Birmingham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rotherham 30% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, matchday 44 | Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 39% | Draw 31% | Birmingham 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Rotherham 1.09 / Birmingham 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 0.654 / def 1.019 | Birmingham attack 0.801 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Birmingham xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rotherham vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does Rotherham vs Birmingham kick off?
Rotherham vs Birmingham kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Birmingham?
Rotherham 0 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is Rotherham vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Birmingham part of?
Rotherham vs Birmingham is a Championship fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 39% chance of winning, Birmingham a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rotherham and Birmingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Rotherham vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rotherham's attack rating (0.65) and Birmingham's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rotherham's last 89 games and Birmingham's last 89 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.27
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.02
0.93
Birmingham xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rotherham vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Rotherham and 0.93 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rotherham come into this having played 89 games, going 15W 28D 46L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.10 PPG from 89 outings (26W 20D 43L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rotherham on 0.82 PPG, Birmingham on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rotherham's home form reads 13W 13D 18L across their last 44 home games, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 44 away games (10W 8D 26L).
The Goals Picture
Rotherham are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.07 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 89 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
Rotherham (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rotherham
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Rotherham vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are Rotherham and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 15W 28D 46L in their last 89 games (0.82 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 26W 20D 43L in their last 89 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Birmingham away?
Rotherham's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.18 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. They cover more than one competition — Championship, League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Birmingham have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Rotherham's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Rotherham
2
Draws
3
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Rotherham vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Birmingham?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Rotherham have won 1, Birmingham have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Birmingham 2-1 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Rotherham and Birmingham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 59%, Birmingham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rotherham) and 46% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Birmingham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rotherham vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rotherham and Birmingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Rotherham's recent matches and 50% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rotherham and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rotherham's recent games and 46% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Rotherham's recent matches and 75% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rotherham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 44, as Rotherham and Birmingham drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.09 xG and Birmingham 0.93 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rotherham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Birmingham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.65 / defence 1.02 against Birmingham attack 0.80 / defence 1.24, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 39% | Draw 31% | Birmingham 31%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 49%, Birmingham 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Birmingham's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rotherham 0.82 PPG, Birmingham 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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