QPR 0-3 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and Sunderland meet at Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 14 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, QPR have posted 3W 2D 5L at Loftus Road — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sunderland (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sunderland are 1.00 PPG clear of QPR in recent Championship fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — QPR have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sunderland in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for QPR, 0 for Sunderland and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sunderland — key trading statistics (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 53% versus Sunderland 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 51% | Sunderland 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.09 xG and Sunderland 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.877 / defence 1.230 | Sunderland attack 1.124 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.121. Data: 77 QPR games / 30 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 27% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 48%. Fair-value odds: QPR 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Sunderland 2.08. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Sunderland 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 27% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG QPR 1.09 / Sunderland 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.877 / def 1.230 | Sunderland attack 1.124 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Sunderland xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Sunderland kick off?
QPR vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 14 February 2023 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Sunderland?
QPR 0 - 3 Sunderland.
Where is QPR vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Sunderland part of?
QPR vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 27% chance of winning, Sunderland a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both QPR and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): QPR 0W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 0W.
What form are QPR and Sunderland in?
QPR (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
QPR's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.12x) against QPR's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 77/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
27%
3.77
26%
3.89
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
QPR xG
Total xG
2.64
1.55
Sunderland xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
17.75
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are QPR and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for QPR and 1.55 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 77 outings, QPR have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 29W 18D 30L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Sunderland's form line: 36W 22D 19L from 77 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for QPR against 1.69 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (15W 10D 13L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 13W 15D 10L from 38 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
QPR are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.58 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Sunderland in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 29W 18D 30L in their last 77 games (1.36 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 36W 22D 19L in their last 77 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Sunderland away?
QPR's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.45 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.42 PPG.
Have QPR or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sunderland in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 0-3 on 14 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
QPR
3
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Sunderland have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 53%, Sunderland 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (QPR) and 53% (Sunderland).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of QPR's games and 58% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of QPR's recent games and 53% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Sunderland tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sunderland run riot with a 0-3 hammering of QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat QPR 0-3 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.09 xG and Sunderland 1.55 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. QPR fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sunderland outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.88 / defence 1.23 against Sunderland attack 1.12 / defence 1.00, drawn from 77/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 27% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 48%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 51%, Sunderland 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.36 PPG, Sunderland 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.