QPR 3-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Cardiff travel to Loftus Road to take on QPR. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 19 October 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, QPR stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Loftus Road, QPR have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Loftus Road this season.
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
QPR carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for QPR, 1 for Cardiff and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Cardiff winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
QPR in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 57% versus Cardiff 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 52% | Cardiff 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.37 xG and Cardiff 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.986 / defence 1.017 | Cardiff attack 0.986 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.092. Data: 60 QPR games / 60 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 43% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 30%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Cardiff 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Cardiff 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 43% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG QPR 1.37 / Cardiff 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.986 / def 1.017 | Cardiff attack 0.986 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: QPR (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Cardiff xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Cardiff kick off?
QPR vs Cardiff kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Cardiff?
QPR 3 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is QPR vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Cardiff part of?
QPR vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 43% chance of winning, Cardiff a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both QPR and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Cardiff?
Record (2 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 1W.
What form are QPR and Cardiff in?
QPR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates QPR's attack at 0.99x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.72
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
QPR xG
Total xG
2.47
1.09
Cardiff xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
8%
13.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are QPR and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for QPR and 1.09 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, QPR have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 26W 12D 22L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cardiff's form line: 20W 11D 29L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.50 PPG, Cardiff on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.62 PPG from 29 outings (13W 8D 8L).
On the road, Cardiff have gone 9W 5D 15L from 29 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.03 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Cardiff in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 20W 11D 29L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Cardiff away?
QPR's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.62 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2022, when QPR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
QPR
2
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, QPR have won 4, Cardiff have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when QPR 0-0 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Cardiff?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 52%, Cardiff 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (QPR) and 62% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cardiff in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of QPR's games and 59% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of QPR's recent games and 62% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Cardiff tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant QPR run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Cardiff 3-0 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.37 xG and Cardiff 1.09 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cardiff landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Cardiff attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 43% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 30%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 52%, Cardiff 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Cardiff's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.50 PPG, Cardiff 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.