QPR 0-3 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 43%, yet in-form Burnley provide a compelling counter-argument — this QPR vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to Loftus Road to face QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 December 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, QPR have posted 5W 2D 3L at Loftus Road — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burnley (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Burnley have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Burnley are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — QPR have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Burnley in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 51% versus Burnley 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 48% | Burnley 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.58 xG and Burnley 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.035 / defence 0.977 | Burnley attack 1.228 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.132. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing QPR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Burnley have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 QPR games / 21 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 43% | Draw 24% | Burnley 33%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Burnley 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Burnley (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 43% | Draw 24% | Burnley 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG QPR 1.58 / Burnley 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.035 / def 0.977 | Burnley attack 1.228 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: QPR (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Burnley xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Burnley kick off?
QPR vs Burnley kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Burnley?
QPR 0 - 3 Burnley.
Where is QPR vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Burnley part of?
QPR vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 43% chance of winning, Burnley a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both QPR and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are QPR and Burnley in?
QPR (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Burnley (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.03x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.23x) against QPR's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 67/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.10
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
QPR xG
Total xG
2.94
1.36
Burnley xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are QPR and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for QPR and 1.36 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR come into this having played 59 games, going 25W 10D 24L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.29 PPG from 59 outings (18W 22D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for QPR against 1.29 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
QPR's home form reads 14W 6D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.03 points per game from 29 outings (6W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.25 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Burnley in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 25W 10D 24L in their last 59 games (1.44 PPG), while Burnley have gone 18W 22D 19L in their last 59 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Burnley away?
QPR's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.66 PPG; Burnley away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won 0-5 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
QPR
1
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Burnley have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when QPR 0-5 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 48%, Burnley 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (QPR) and 34% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Burnley in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of QPR's recent matches and 59% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of QPR's recent games and 34% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Burnley tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Burnley in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 0-3 hammering of QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat QPR 0-3 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.58 xG and Burnley 1.36 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. QPR fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Burnley outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Burnley attack 1.23 / defence 1.24, drawn from 67/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 43% | Draw 24% | Burnley 33%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 48%, Burnley 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.44 PPG, Burnley 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.