QPR 1-0 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
QPR host Blackburn at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 home games — 1.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Blackburn stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn away from home this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — QPR at 1.40 PPG versus Blackburn's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. QPR register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Blackburn in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — QPR 75% and Blackburn 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (QPR 75% | Blackburn 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.69 xG and Blackburn 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.200 / defence 1.228 | Blackburn attack 0.862 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.104. Blackburn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing QPR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 QPR games / 12 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 48% | Draw 27% | Blackburn 25%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Blackburn 4.00. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: QPR 67% | Blackburn 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 48% | Draw 27% | Blackburn 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG QPR 1.69 / Blackburn 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.200 / def 1.228 | Blackburn attack 0.862 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: QPR (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Blackburn xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Blackburn kick off?
QPR vs Blackburn kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What was the final score in QPR vs Blackburn?
QPR 1 - 0 Blackburn.
Where is QPR vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What competition is QPR vs Blackburn part of?
QPR vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 48% chance of winning, Blackburn a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both QPR and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Blackburn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are QPR and Blackburn in?
QPR (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Blackburn (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from QPR's attack rating (1.20) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.69
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
QPR xG
Total xG
2.86
1.17
Blackburn xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
5%
21.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are QPR and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for QPR and 1.17 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, QPR have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 5W 3D 4L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn's form line: 4W 5D 3L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.50 PPG, Blackburn on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
On the road, Blackburn have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Blackburn's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.75 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Blackburn in 83%.
Last 12 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Blackburn in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Blackburn away?
QPR's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.83 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Blackburn won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
QPR
0
Draws
6
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 4, Blackburn have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when QPR 1-3 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Blackburn see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — QPR at 67%, Blackburn at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (QPR) and 50% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Blackburn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of QPR's games and 83% of Blackburn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of QPR's recent games and 50% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Blackburn tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Blackburn 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Blackburn 1-0 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.69 xG and Blackburn 1.17 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.20 / defence 1.23 against Blackburn attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 48% | Draw 27% | Blackburn 25%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 75%, Blackburn 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Blackburn's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.50 PPG, Blackburn 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.