Preston 1-2 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Preston at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Preston vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cardiff make the trip to Deepdale to face Preston in Championship, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Preston (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Deepdale, Preston have gone 4W 3D 1L this season (8 games, 1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Preston are significantly better at Deepdale than their overall form suggests.
Cardiff have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Preston's 1.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Cardiff's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cardiff goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 53% versus Cardiff 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 47% | Cardiff 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.61 xG and Cardiff 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.968 / defence 1.066 | Cardiff attack 0.912 / defence 1.565. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.118. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.565 — this is suppressing Preston's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Preston games / 17 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 49% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 25%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Cardiff 4.00. Preston hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Preston are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Preston 62% | Cardiff 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 49% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Preston 1.61 / Cardiff 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.968 / def 1.066 | Cardiff attack 0.912 / def 1.565 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Preston (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Cardiff xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Cardiff kick off?
Preston vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Cardiff?
Preston 1 - 2 Cardiff.
Where is Preston vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Cardiff part of?
Preston vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 49% chance of winning, Cardiff a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Preston and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Cardiff?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Preston and Cardiff in?
Preston (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Cardiff (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Preston's attack at 0.97x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (0.91x) against Preston's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.80
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Preston xG
Total xG
2.70
1.09
Cardiff xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
5%
20.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Preston and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Preston and 1.09 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Preston's recent record stands at 5W 6D 6L from 17 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 10L across 17 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Preston against 0.88 for Cardiff. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Preston have managed 4W 3D 1L from 8 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Preston are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cardiff's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Preston come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Preston are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.00 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Cardiff away?
Preston's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.88 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preston have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Preston
3
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, Preston have won 3, Cardiff have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2025, when Preston 2-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Cardiff?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 62%, Cardiff 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Preston) and 62% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Preston keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cardiff in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Preston's games and 50% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Preston's recent games and 62% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Cardiff tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Preston 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Preston 1-2 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.61 xG and Cardiff 1.09 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.97 / defence 1.07 against Cardiff attack 0.91 / defence 1.56, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 49% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 25%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cardiff win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 47%, Cardiff 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.24 PPG, Cardiff 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.