Preston 1-4 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deepdale plays host to Preston versus Blackburn in Championship, Regular Season - 44. Kick-off: Monday 25 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Preston have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Preston's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Deepdale this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Blackburn's overall Championship record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Championship this season, Blackburn have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Preston, 0.90 for Blackburn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Preston 0W, Blackburn 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Blackburn winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Blackburn half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 51% versus Blackburn 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 44% | Blackburn 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.15 xG and Blackburn 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.968 / defence 1.085 | Blackburn attack 0.609 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.112. Data: 43 Preston games / 43 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 45% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 24%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Blackburn 4.17. Preston hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Blackburn's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Preston 70% | Blackburn 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 45% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Preston 1.15 / Blackburn 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.968 / def 1.085 | Blackburn attack 0.609 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Preston (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Preston xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Blackburn xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Blackburn kick off?
Preston vs Blackburn kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Blackburn?
Preston 1 - 4 Blackburn.
Where is Preston vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Blackburn part of?
Preston vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 45% chance of winning, Blackburn a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Preston and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Blackburn?
Record (1 meetings): Preston 0W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 1W.
What form are Preston and Blackburn in?
Preston (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Blackburn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Preston's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.61x) against Preston's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
45%
2.20
31%
3.22
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Preston xG
Total xG
1.88
0.73
Blackburn xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Preston and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Preston and 0.73 for Blackburn, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Preston come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 16D 13L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.47 PPG from 43 outings (17W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Preston against 1.47 for Blackburn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Preston's home form reads 8W 10D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Blackburn's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Preston come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Preston are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.23 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 14W 16D 13L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 17W 12D 14L in their last 43 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Blackburn away?
Preston's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.62 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Preston or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Blackburn in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Blackburn go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackburn won 1-4 on 25 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preston have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Blackburn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Preston
3
Draws
5
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Preston have won 2, Blackburn have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Blackburn 1-0 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Blackburn see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 71%, Blackburn 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Preston) and 29% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Blackburn in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Blackburn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Preston's games and 43% of Blackburn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Preston's recent games and 29% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Blackburn tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Blackburn run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Preston.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Preston 1-4 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.15 xG and Blackburn 0.73 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Blackburn outscored their 0.73 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Blackburn attack 0.61 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 45% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 24%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Blackburn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 44%, Blackburn 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackburn's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.35 PPG, Blackburn 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.