Plymouth 2-3 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Home Park to face Plymouth in Championship, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Plymouth have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Home Park this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Championship this season, Derby have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Plymouth, 0.80 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plymouth lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 52% versus Derby 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 54% | Derby 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.80 xG and Derby 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.079 / defence 1.508 | Derby attack 0.707 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.032. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 83 Plymouth games / 37 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 54% | Draw 24% | Derby 23%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Derby 4.35. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | Derby 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 54% | Draw 24% | Derby 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Plymouth 1.80 / Derby 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.079 / def 1.508 | Derby attack 0.707 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Derby xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Derby kick off?
Plymouth vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Derby?
Plymouth 2 - 3 Derby.
Where is Plymouth vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Derby part of?
Plymouth vs Derby is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 54% chance of winning, Derby a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plymouth and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Derby?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 2W | Draws 1 | Derby 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Derby in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Derby (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.71x) against Plymouth's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 83/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
54%
1.87
24%
4.24
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.90
1.10
Derby xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
4%
26.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.10 for Derby, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth come into this having played 83 games, going 20W 24D 39L for 1.01 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.53 PPG from 83 outings (37W 16D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Derby carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Plymouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Plymouth's home form reads 16W 12D 13L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.01 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.24 points per game from 41 outings (14W 9D 18L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.39 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Derby in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 20W 24D 39L in their last 83 games (1.01 PPG), while Derby have gone 37W 16D 30L in their last 83 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Derby away?
Plymouth's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.46 PPG; Derby away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Derby in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Plymouth
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Derby have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Plymouth 2-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Derby?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 61%, Derby 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Plymouth) and 49% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Plymouth's recent matches and 49% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Plymouth's matches and 49% of Derby's.
Do Plymouth and Derby tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Derby in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Plymouth 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Plymouth 2-3 at Home Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.80 xG and Derby 1.10 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Derby outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.08 / defence 1.51 against Derby attack 0.71 / defence 1.24, drawn from 83/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 54% | Draw 24% | Derby 23%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Derby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 54%, Derby 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.01. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.