Plymouth 3-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Plymouth face Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Cardiff meet at Home Park in Championship (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Plymouth's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Plymouth are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cardiff have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cardiff away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Plymouth, 0 for Cardiff and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2023, ended Plymouth 2–2 Cardiff — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Cardiff half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 58% versus Cardiff 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 60% | Cardiff 41%). Note also that Cardiff surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Plymouth recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.91 xG and Cardiff 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.368 / defence 1.404 | Cardiff attack 0.971 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.202. Plymouth carry an above-average attack rating of 1.368 — their 1.91 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.404 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cardiff's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 27 games and Cardiff's last 73.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 45% | Draw 22% | Cardiff 33%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.24 | Draw 4.56 | Cardiff 2.99. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.91 / 1.64) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and Cardiff's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plymouth 70% (last 10 home games) | Cardiff 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, matchday 28 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 45% | Draw 22% | Cardiff 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Plymouth 1.91 / Cardiff 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.368 / def 1.404 | Cardiff attack 0.971 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Cardiff xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Cardiff FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Cardiff kick off?
Plymouth vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Plymouth 3 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Plymouth vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Cardiff part of?
Plymouth vs Cardiff is a Championship fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 45% chance of winning, Cardiff a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Plymouth and Cardiff will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.37x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (0.97x) against Plymouth's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 27 games and Cardiff's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
45%
2.24
22%
4.56
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.55
1.64
Cardiff xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
5%
20.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Cardiff Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.64 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 38W 17D 18L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Cardiff's form line: 24W 14D 35L from 73 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cardiff.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.36 PPG from their last 36 home games (27W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 12W 5D 19L from their last 36 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.03 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
Plymouth (Home) vs Cardiff (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Plymouth vs Cardiff Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 38W 17D 18L in their last 73 games (1.79 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 24W 14D 35L in their last 73 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Cardiff away?
Plymouth's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.36 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cardiff in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Plymouth and Cardiff, the earliest from December 2023. They cover more than one competition — Championship, League One. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cardiff won Cardiff 5-0 Plymouth on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Plymouth
2
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Cardiff H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cardiff?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 2, Cardiff have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Cardiff last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Plymouth 5-2 Cardiff.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 53%, Cardiff 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Plymouth) and 50% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cardiff in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Cardiff Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Cardiff matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Plymouth's recent matches and 39% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plymouth and Cardiff matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Plymouth's matches and 50% of Cardiff's.
Do Plymouth and Cardiff matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Plymouth's recent matches and 61% of Cardiff's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Cardiff 3-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.91 xG and Cardiff 1.64 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.37 / defence 1.40 against Cardiff attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 27/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 45% | Draw 22% | Cardiff 33%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 60%, Cardiff 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cardiff's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Cardiff (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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