Peterborough 2-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 43%, yet in-form QPR provide a compelling counter-argument — this Peterborough vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
QPR make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in Championship, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
QPR have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, QPR are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 46% versus QPR 69%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Peterborough 69% | QPR 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.80 xG and QPR 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.108 / defence 1.184 | QPR attack 1.164 / defence 1.542. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.126. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.542 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Peterborough games / 13 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 25% | QPR 32%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | QPR 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form QPR (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 50% | QPR 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 25% | QPR 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Peterborough 1.80 / QPR 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.108 / def 1.184 | QPR attack 1.164 / def 1.542 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.55
QPR xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs QPR kick off?
Peterborough vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs QPR?
Peterborough 2 - 1 QPR.
Where is Peterborough vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs QPR part of?
Peterborough vs QPR is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 43% chance of winning, QPR a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Peterborough and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and QPR in?
Peterborough (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. QPR (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.11) and QPR's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.16x) against Peterborough's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
43%
2.34
25%
4.02
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.36
1.55
QPR xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
5%
18.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Peterborough and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.55 for QPR, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Peterborough have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 3W 2D 8L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 6W 3D 4L from 13 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, QPR are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Peterborough.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Peterborough are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, QPR have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of QPR's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.85 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and QPR in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while QPR have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or QPR away?
Peterborough's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.33 PPG; QPR away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Peterborough or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, QPR in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
0
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and QPR?
From 2 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, QPR have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when QPR 1-3 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and QPR?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Peterborough, 83% for QPR — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Peterborough and 100% for QPR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Peterborough have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Peterborough's games and 83% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Peterborough's matches and 100% of QPR's.
Do Peterborough and QPR tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, QPR in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out QPR 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat QPR 2-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.80 xG and QPR 1.55 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.11 / defence 1.18 against QPR attack 1.16 / defence 1.54, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 43% | Draw 25% | QPR 32%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 69%, QPR 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, QPR arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Peterborough winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. QPR (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.