Nottingham Forest 3-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees QPR travel to The City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 16 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at The City Ground, Nottingham Forest have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The City Ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
QPR — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
QPR away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Nottingham Forest carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nottingham Forest, 0 for QPR and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
QPR trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 51% versus QPR 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 49% | QPR 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.57 xG and QPR 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 1.206 / defence 1.027 | QPR attack 0.954 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 1.059. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Nottingham Forest's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Nottingham Forest games / 36 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 50% | Draw 25% | QPR 25%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | QPR 4.00. Nottingham Forest hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 30% | QPR 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 50% | Draw 25% | QPR 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.57 / QPR 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 1.206 / def 1.027 | QPR attack 0.954 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.061 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.04
QPR xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs QPR kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 16 March 2022 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs QPR?
Nottingham Forest 3 - 1 QPR.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs QPR part of?
Nottingham Forest vs QPR is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 50% chance of winning, QPR a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nottingham Forest and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and QPR?
Record (1 meetings): Nottingham Forest 0W | Draws 1 | QPR 0W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and QPR in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
50%
2.02
25%
3.96
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.60
1.04
QPR xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
19.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.04 for QPR, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 35 games, going 15W 10D 10L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.66 PPG from 35 outings (17W 7D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.57 PPG, QPR on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nottingham Forest's home form reads 8W 4D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.53 points per game from 17 outings (8W 2D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.46 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and QPR in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 15W 10D 10L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while QPR have gone 17W 7D 11L in their last 35 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or QPR away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.65 PPG; QPR away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, QPR in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
0
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and QPR?
From 2 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, QPR have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2022, when Nottingham Forest 3-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and QPR?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 47%, QPR 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Nottingham Forest and 71% for QPR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Nottingham Forest's games and 71% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 71% of QPR's.
Do Nottingham Forest and QPR tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, QPR in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat QPR 3-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.57 xG and QPR 1.04 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 1.21 / defence 1.03 against QPR attack 0.95 / defence 1.23, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 50% | Draw 25% | QPR 25%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 49%, QPR 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.57 PPG, QPR 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.