Norwich 0-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Norwich at 43%, yet in-form QPR provide a compelling counter-argument — this Norwich vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Norwich host QPR at Carrow Road in Championship, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 2 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Norwich — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Norwich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norwich's home record at Carrow Road: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Norwich are significantly better at Carrow Road than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. QPR are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Norwich in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
QPR in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 45% versus QPR 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 57% | QPR 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 1.53 xG and QPR 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 1.197 / defence 1.128 | QPR attack 1.037 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.104. Data: 18 Norwich games / 63 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norwich 43% | Draw 25% | QPR 32%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | QPR 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Norwich are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form QPR (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norwich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Norwich 60% | QPR 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 43% | Draw 25% | QPR 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Norwich 1.53 / QPR 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 1.197 / def 1.128 | QPR attack 1.037 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Norwich (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.29
QPR xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norwich vs QPR kick off?
Norwich vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 2 November 2022 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs QPR?
Norwich 0 - 0 QPR.
Where is Norwich vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs QPR part of?
Norwich vs QPR is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 43% chance of winning, QPR a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Norwich and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Norwich vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norwich and QPR in?
Norwich (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. QPR (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Norwich's attack rating (1.20) and QPR's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Norwich's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
43%
2.32
25%
4.01
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.83
1.29
QPR xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
7%
14.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Norwich and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Norwich and 1.29 for QPR, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Norwich have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 13W 11D 32L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Norwich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 25W 9D 22L from 56 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, QPR are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Norwich.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Norwich have posted 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (8W 5D 15L).
On the road, QPR have gone 11W 3D 14L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Norwich are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.25 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norwich and QPR in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 13W 11D 32L in their last 56 games (0.89 PPG), while QPR have gone 25W 9D 22L in their last 56 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or QPR away?
QPR's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.04 PPG; QPR away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norwich and QPR runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Norwich go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when QPR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Norwich's record when hosting QPR specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Norwich
4
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and QPR?
From 8 meetings on record, Norwich have won 3, QPR have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when QPR 1-2 Norwich.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and QPR?
Norwich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 50%, QPR 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Norwich) and 54% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Norwich have failed to score in 39% of games; QPR in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norwich play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Norwich's recent matches and 57% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norwich vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Norwich's matches and 54% of QPR's.
Do Norwich and QPR tend to score early?
Norwich have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, QPR in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Norwich's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 19, as Norwich and QPR drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.53 xG and QPR 1.29 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Norwich fell 1.5 short of their projected output. QPR landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.20 / defence 1.13 against QPR attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 18/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 43% | Draw 25% | QPR 32%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 57%, QPR 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, QPR arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.