Millwall 1-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Millwall at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Millwall vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Den plays host to Millwall versus Sunderland in Championship, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 4 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Millwall have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall at The Den this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Den. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Millwall are significantly better at The Den than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Millwall against 1.70 for Sunderland. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Millwall 0W, Sunderland 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Millwall half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 45% versus Sunderland 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 37% | Sunderland 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.32 xG and Sunderland 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.047 / defence 0.722 | Sunderland attack 1.098 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.156. Millwall's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 Millwall games / 28 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 46% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 26%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Sunderland 3.85. Millwall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Millwall 30% | Sunderland 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 46% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Millwall 1.32 / Sunderland 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.047 / def 0.722 | Sunderland attack 1.098 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Millwall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Sunderland xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Sunderland kick off?
Millwall vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Sunderland?
Millwall 1 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Millwall vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Sunderland part of?
Millwall vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 46% chance of winning, Sunderland a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Millwall and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Millwall 0W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Millwall and Sunderland in?
Millwall (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Millwall's attack rating (1.05) and Sunderland's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.10x) against Millwall's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 73/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.56
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.24
0.92
Sunderland xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Millwall and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Millwall and 0.92 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Millwall come into this having played 73 games, going 30W 21D 22L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.68 PPG from 73 outings (34W 21D 18L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Millwall against 1.68 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Millwall's home form reads 21W 9D 6L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Millwall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.47 points per game from 36 outings (13W 14D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Millwall are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.63 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 30W 21D 22L in their last 73 games (1.52 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 34W 21D 18L in their last 73 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Sunderland away?
Millwall's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 2.00 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Millwall or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sunderland in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 3-0 on 3 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Millwall
3
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Millwall have won 1, Sunderland have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Sunderland 1-0 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Millwall see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 42%, Sunderland 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Millwall) and 56% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Millwall's recent matches and 58% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Millwall's recent games and 56% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Sunderland tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Millwall and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Den, Regular Season - 30, as Millwall and Sunderland drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.32 xG and Sunderland 0.92 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.05 / defence 0.72 against Sunderland attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 73/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 46% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 26%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 37%, Sunderland 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.52 PPG, Sunderland 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.