Millwall 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Millwall at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Millwall vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Derby travel to The Den to take on Millwall. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 10 March 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Millwall — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, Derby have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Millwall 2.20 PPG, Derby 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Millwall register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derby in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Millwall, 0 for Derby and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Millwall trading profile (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 45% versus Derby 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 39% | Derby 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.58 xG and Derby 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.130 / defence 0.978 | Derby attack 1.198 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.217. Data: 82 Millwall games / 82 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 40% | Draw 27% | Derby 33%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Derby 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Millwall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Millwall 60% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 40% | Draw 27% | Derby 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Millwall 1.58 / Derby 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.130 / def 0.978 | Derby attack 1.198 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Millwall (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Derby xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Derby kick off?
Millwall vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Derby?
Millwall 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is Millwall vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Derby part of?
Millwall vs Derby is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 40% chance of winning, Derby a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Millwall and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Millwall 2W | Draws 3 | Derby 0W.
What form are Millwall and Derby in?
Millwall (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Derby (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Millwall's attack at 1.13x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Millwall's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.73
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Millwall xG
Total xG
3.01
1.43
Derby xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Millwall and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Millwall and 1.43 for Derby, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Millwall's recent record stands at 37W 20D 25L from 82 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 28W 20D 34L across 82 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Millwall on 1.60 PPG, Derby on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 22W 7D 11L from 40 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 12W 9D 19L across 40 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Millwall are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.24 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Derby in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 37W 20D 25L in their last 82 games (1.60 PPG), while Derby have gone 28W 20D 34L in their last 82 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Derby away?
Millwall's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.82 PPG; Derby away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Millwall or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Derby in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Millwall's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Millwall
3
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Millwall have won 3, Derby have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Millwall 1-0 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Derby?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Millwall see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 38%, Derby 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Millwall) and 55% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Millwall's recent matches and 62% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Millwall's recent games and 55% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Derby tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Derby in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Millwall edge out Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Derby 1-0 at The Den, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.58 xG and Derby 1.43 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.13 / defence 0.98 against Derby attack 1.20 / defence 1.09, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 40% | Draw 27% | Derby 33%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 39%, Derby 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derby's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.60 PPG, Derby 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.